Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4b602491cf97baa4618813fa3911b3a84d772dfa9f02d574c618eddb09c2bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 42c | 7,074$2,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,954.24 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 61c | 3,333$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.87 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 2,240$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.36 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 43c | 2,173$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.48 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 1,543$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.83 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 55c | 654$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.3 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 29c | 616.15$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 60c | 500$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…a20abacked Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…6cc9backed Yes | 42c | 359.02$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 59c | 291$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 35c | 286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 59c | 248$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.68 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes | 38c | 235.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 25c | 232$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed No | 69c | 231.42$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 60c | 198$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 58c | 166.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 40c | 132$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 43c | 101$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 57c | 90.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…f960backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…088bbacked No | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…45afbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 41.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…6c3bbacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 60c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24?this page
- Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-24?Yes won
- Will New York City FC vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.