Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Paris FC win on 2025-09-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf50dc9505053942de38ac0aa8a09ea13caa105d64356f21c06c474b67d16caed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Yes | 35c | 84,148$29,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,701 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 64c | 7,222$4,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,622.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 66c | 3,436$2,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,267.76 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 52c | 3,380$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.05 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 65c | 3,137$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.63 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 2,902$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.02 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 65c | 1,754$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 1,658$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.86 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked No | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 43c | 1,466$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.24 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 62c | 1,106$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.06 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked No | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 70c | 669.82$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 28c | 538.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273a…6d54backed Yes | 78c | 292.65$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 75c | 216.28$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 62c | 204.37$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…47c1backed Yes | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…f6fabacked Yes | 79c | 127.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 66c | 121.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 34c | 118$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 53c | 114$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed No | 65c | 111$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 66c | 105.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…314ebacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…24babacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…04babacked No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 67c | 47.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…9803backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdf…1fcbbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257f…12fcbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris FC win on 2025-09-14?this page
- Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Paris FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-09-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.