Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2f2a7b585ea37572af54eea32b76c6a79d89776ca27d85a2295ebc3bb94620a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Popyrin, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Popyrin | 43c | 25,000$10,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,650 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Berrettini | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Berrettini | 57c | 8,595$4,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,692.44 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Berrettini | 77c | 6,710$5,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.8 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Berrettini | 57c | 5,543$3,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,383.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Popyrin | 24c | 4,746$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.92 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Berrettini | 75c | 3,808$2,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.88 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Popyrin | 24c | 2,725$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Popyrin | 21c | 1,831$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.04 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Berrettini | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Popyrin | 19c | 1,200$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed Popyrin | 34c | 1,010$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Berrettini | 77c | 865.03$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.74 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Popyrin | 21c | 722.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…26b6backed Popyrin | 44c | 720$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Berrettini | 58c | 603$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Popyrin | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…4276backed Berrettini | 79c | 595.37$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Berrettini | 61c | 522.91$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.35 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Popyrin | 42c | 500$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.69 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Popyrin | 21c | 471.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Berrettini | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Berrettini | 62c | 312$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Popyrin | 43c | 301.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Popyrin | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Popyrin | 21c | 261.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Berrettini | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Berrettini | 55c | 228.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…3e48backed Popyrin | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Popyrin | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Popyrin | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Popyrin | 29c | 220$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Popyrin | 43c | 217.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Berrettini | 79c | 186.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Berrettini | 80c | 167.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Berrettini | 57c | 139.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Berrettini | 80c | 139$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…e7b3backed Popyrin | 42c | 131.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Berrettini | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Popyrin | 38c | 121.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Popyrin | 24c | 114.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Popyrin | 44c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Popyrin | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Popyrin | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…54e7backed Berrettini | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Berrettini | 74c | 92.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…aff9backed Popyrin | 43c | 91.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…a30cbacked Berrettini | 60c | 89.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Popyrin | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Popyrin | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Popyrin | 24c | 82.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Berrettini | 62c | 74.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Berrettini | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Popyrin | 28c | 52.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Popyrin | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a1…f6f1backed Popyrin | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Popyrin | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Berrettini | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Berrettini | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed Berrettini | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…a087backed Berrettini | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f6cabacked Popyrin | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…7902backed Berrettini | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Berrettini | 57c | 30.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Berrettini | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Berrettini | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…abacbacked Popyrin | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…aa60backed Berrettini | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Berrettini | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…4207backed Berrettini | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Berrettini | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.