Tennis · resolved market
Pan Pacific Open: Maya Joint vs Karolina Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfb8379a9944dded8c7ae06538504fa6dad86489c8d4c1748c4c8ade5043bcc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Joint, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $415,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $423,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7606…2836backed Joint | 43c | 330,000$141,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141,838.74 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Muchova | 57c | 300,590$171,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129,253.86 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…6ebcbacked Joint | 0c | 43,600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Muchova | 65c | 14,481$9,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,009.35 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Muchova | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Muchova | 62c | 2,943$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.16 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Muchova | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.58 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Joint | 13c | 1,511$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…a58dbacked Joint | 7c | 1,299$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Muchova | 79c | 1,241$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.61 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Muchova | 58c | 1,145$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.9 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Joint | 19c | 843.28$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Joint | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Joint | 29c | 706.9$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Muchova | 71c | 654.99$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.86 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed Muchova | 73c | 647.95$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.95 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Joint | 10c | 578.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Muchova | 64c | 555$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Muchova | 74c | 550.44$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Muchova | 71c | 518.44$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.35 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Muchova | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Joint | 11c | 409.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Joint | 25c | 350$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Joint | 12c | 337.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Muchova | 70c | 316.49$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Muchova | 72c | 270.83$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Joint | 27c | 270.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Joint | 20c | 229.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…3e48backed Muchova | 63c | 226.52$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Joint | 27c | 211.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Joint | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be9…8cd1backed Muchova | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Muchova | 62c | 199.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Joint | 30c | 167.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Muchova | 68c | 161.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 52 | 75%39 W · 13 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Muchova | 74c | 161.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…ac6bbacked Joint | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…59b5backed Muchova | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Muchova | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Muchova | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Muchova | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…c927backed Joint | 20c | 124.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Muchova | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Joint | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Joint | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2a…c016backed Joint | 14c | 98.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…8cfebacked Joint | 28c | 82.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Joint | 25c | 81.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Joint | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…dd43backed Joint | 28c | 60.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd57…c7e2backed Joint | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Muchova | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…bacfbacked Muchova | 73c | 50.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed Joint | 29c | 50.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Joint | 31c | 49.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Joint | 28c | 48.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Joint | 21c | 48.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…df17backed Joint | 37c | 40.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Muchova | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Muchova | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…9d01backed Muchova | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Muchova | 71c | 29.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Muchova | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…9135backed Muchova | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…341dbacked Muchova | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.