TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Wizards

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Mavericks, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,914,600
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,098,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,914,600 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Wizards39c817,243$320,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320,693.018022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Mavericks67c136,236$91,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,410.3647448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Mavericks60c125,000$75,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,50020253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks61c77,264$46,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,344.79,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Mavericks61c62,788$38,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,378.0547144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Mavericks61c58,000$35,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,6201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Mavericks61c52,208$31,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,213.5136148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Mavericks62c50,375$30,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,392.2241848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Mavericks61c50,000$30,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,50024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Mavericks58c40,689$23,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,138.9519249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Mavericks61c38,961$23,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,069.9771052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Mavericks57c35,042$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,041.5134062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Mavericks61c35,000$21,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,65017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Mavericks60c32,869$19,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,148.152867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mavericks61c31,324$19,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,145.2772450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Mavericks61c25,000$15,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7505850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Mavericks61c25,000$15,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,749.997946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Mavericks60c24,646$14,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,746.8527917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Mavericks60c22,429$13,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,889.0115952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Mavericks55c15,802$8,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,152.0326038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Mavericks61c14,504$8,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,672.187957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Mavericks60c14,162$8,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,664.6637557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c67…377ebacked Mavericks52c14,000$7,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7601643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Wizards37c13,675$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,110.111,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Mavericks62c13,536$8,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,153.4769852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f98…f178backed Mavericks14c12,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,3201100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks61c12,000$7,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7202,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Mavericks72c10,516$7,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,944.3611654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9465…cfeebacked Wizards0c10,090$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Mavericks62c9,710$6,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,689.686155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Mavericks62c9,677$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,677.4212529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Wizards39c9,434$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7009445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks63c8,965$5,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,301.352,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Wizards37c7,860$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,881.492,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Mavericks62c7,168$4,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,738.6544459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Mavericks61c6,968$4,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,717.4446342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Wizards36c6,668$2,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,403.1361835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Mavericks38c6,039$2,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,726.5534645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Mavericks62c5,931$3,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.5485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Mavericks64c5,555$3,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.814753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Mavericks61c5,250$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0703342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Mavericks47c5,098$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.9680146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Mavericks30c5,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mavericks54c4,844$2,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,236.722,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1fa…ae2ebacked Mavericks62c4,800$2,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+31.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Mavericks61c4,725$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.6743051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Wizards55c4,551$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.0529458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mavericks57c4,325$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.5281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Wizards39c4,276$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.2316446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Wizards38c4,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5206636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Wizards44c4,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.9944337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fa…9dffbacked Wizards68c3,948$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Wizards21c3,918$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.551,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks55c3,768$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.568,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d98…e447backed Wizards39c3,590$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mavericks63c3,500$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2951,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Mavericks61c3,500$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36547748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Mavericks57c3,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.72657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Wizards47c3,268$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.7831347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Mavericks61c3,221$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.1178445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ca…ca43backed Mavericks54c3,200$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.3811575.7%87 W · 28 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+16.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Mavericks62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14018047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1252…dec2backed Mavericks66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0204052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Wizards36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Mavericks61c2,838$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.3617141.5%71 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x596e…7b82backed Mavericks61c2,700$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0531656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Mavericks61c2,618$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.021,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Wizards38c2,612$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.411558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked Wizards36c2,545$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.551758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Wizards40c2,518$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Mavericks60c2,459$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.5119388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Mavericks60c2,340$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.2785742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Wizards36c2,311$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.1517250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Wizards36c2,250$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.57851.3%40 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards34c2,212$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.231,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Mavericks60c2,196$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.8638151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Wizards37c2,100$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78019441.2%80 W · 114 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Wizards14c2,012$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9148046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e9…dee1backed Wizards38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7603333.3%11 W · 22 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks62c1,975$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.953,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Mavericks51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7848448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Wizards17c1,824$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.611,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks57c1,750$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.553,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Mavericks61c1,614$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.497261.1%44 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Wizards39c1,509$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.7961851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Wizards36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Mavericks67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.5416136%58 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Mavericks71c1,483$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.2942640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa25b…0151backed Wizards35c1,430$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.52045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa244…4732backed Wizards34c1,400$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Wizards39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Mavericks78c1,277$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.939050%45 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Wizards40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012452.4%65 W · 59 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Wizards38c1,200$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.9843247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks61c1,197$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.072,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cba…c616backed Mavericks55c1,178$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.714641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Mavericks62c1,129$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.0334747%163 W · 184 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Wizards37c1,129$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.6595049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Wizards35c1,128$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wizards36c1,098$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.133,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.