NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb554a7ade3d3a2a2e80c18f6938b8a5dc99022499daf9f01507a7501e2d785ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Mavericks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Wizards | 47c | 2,015$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.05 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 43c | 1,704$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 53c | 1,396$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 56c | 795.33$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.5 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 53c | 511$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.17 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 45c | 218.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Wizards | 57c | 212.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Mavericks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Mavericks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Wizards | 48c | 144$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Mavericks | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Mavericks | 51c | 74.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Wizards | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Wizards | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 145 | 62.8%91 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 49c | 40.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed Mavericks | 65c | 38.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Mavericks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…46dfbacked Wizards | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Wizards | 47c | 34.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards | 44c | 33.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Wizards | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…7b80backed Mavericks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…cad6backed Mavericks | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…7a1abacked Mavericks | 53c | 22.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…e3b1backed Mavericks | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef8…8027backed Mavericks | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. WizardsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.