NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fcd99e625bee67d00779dda75b874327c6e030081b21959be3e2f6e5427802a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Under | 51c | 4,374$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.68 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 3,442$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 3,109$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.99 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…d6e9backed Over | 59c | 2,810$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 2,536$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.74 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…8e44backed Over | 54c | 2,081$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bd…efddbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ce…af69backed Under | 45c | 1,868$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,222$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.28 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 46c | 855.26$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.73 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Over | 56c | 853.45$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.4 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 501$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.51 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 41c | 421$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.39 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 44c | 309.87$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.43 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78fc…0c79backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5this page
- Mavericks vs. WizardsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.