Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab73c6b33d746e338de871132feee9e1d3e57b11e504f63e68f17975420abfe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 69c | 9,609$6,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,630.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 31c | 8,888$2,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,132.72 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 31c | 2,891$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.82 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 1,539$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.09 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 66c | 769.99$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.86 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked No | 70c | 442.86$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 32c | 440$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.2 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 374$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.16 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 34c | 75.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 76c | 65.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-09-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.