Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6c2e4e75b1f1006894e7cc96f18a943e6dcb51dea5819b68ecc83f4f0b813a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 73c | 3,744$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.05 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 31c | 2,549$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.96 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 54c | 766$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.54 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 28c | 702.28$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 10c | 662.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.53 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…dd06backed Yes | 76c | 647.38$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 26c | 440$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 285$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 278$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 258$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…b9acbacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f587backed Yes | 61c | 42.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…15d7backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2025-09-21?Yes won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-09-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.