Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3851d52747cf856ee2075a1eecf013522054fa6e8441ecc2494b5c0e20fd406e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 40c | 40,997$16,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,506.91 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 61c | 20,782$12,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,196.35 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 57c | 15,756$8,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,775.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…7691backed Yes | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 57c | 8,888$5,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,821.83 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 57c | 3,474$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 43c | 1,585$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.06 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 62c | 1,432$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 43c | 840.37$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Yes | 49c | 501.3$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…2c03backed Yes | 49c | 449.53$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 57c | 440$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.2 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 58c | 390.89$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 49c | 365.63$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 42c | 347.62$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 57c | 340$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.52 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Yes | 49c | 273.69$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 58c | 272$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 33c | 179.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 42c | 154$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…a20abacked No | 61c | 148.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 31c | 127.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…4dc9backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x492c…16d1backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 57c | 95.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 42c | 75.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed No | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 43c | 58.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…da3bbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…45afbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57df…0bfabacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Austin FC win on 2025-09-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.