TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, Team WE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$655,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$783,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $655,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce29…3b0dbacked Team WE30c38,740$11,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,553.695952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team WE12c32,304$3,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,934.261,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Team WE24c30,000$7,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,069.9615148.3%73 W · 78 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Bilibili Gaming70c26,744$18,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,077.1535448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Bilibili Gaming68c25,035$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,035.2264155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked Team WE0c25,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Team WE30c22,222$6,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,666.591,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Bilibili Gaming68c17,479$11,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,587.6832150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team WE12c15,905$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.11,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Bilibili Gaming67c13,098$8,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,277.3367553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Team WE14c11,651$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.5169741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce7d…898ebacked Bilibili Gaming71c10,000$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9007054.3%38 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked Bilibili Gaming67c8,910$5,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940.2525453.5%136 W · 118 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Team WE33c8,824$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.2629443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2383…072fbacked Team WE31c7,155$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.376744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99ef…ba25backed Team WE11c5,611$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.678043.8%35 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Bilibili Gaming66c5,555$3,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.6951044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…230dbacked Team WE34c5,493$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.511656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Bilibili Gaming67c5,387$3,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.5157957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked Bilibili Gaming79c5,000$3,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03017953.1%95 W · 84 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068c…bce7backed Bilibili Gaming67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.992540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Team WE31c4,831$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50028642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team WE15c4,459$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.921,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team WE10c4,194$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.851,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Bilibili Gaming66c4,000$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd3…628bbacked Team WE33c4,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3201020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39da…f67fbacked Team WE0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12666.1%4 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdac3…66d8backed Bilibili Gaming69c3,816$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.877052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180e…b3a6backed Team WE31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006134.4%21 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team WE2c3,128$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5738624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x174f…a4acbacked Bilibili Gaming78c3,060$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.446162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Team WE5c3,055$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7567115.4%103 W · 568 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Team WE8c3,000$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0820748.8%101 W · 106 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Team WE30c2,960$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.9917439.1%68 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Team WE33c2,950$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.526729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Bilibili Gaming68c2,941$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.1821056.7%119 W · 91 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98d5…2ec4backed Bilibili Gaming70c2,834$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8616851.5%35 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Bilibili Gaming68c2,581$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.1420644.7%92 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Bilibili Gaming80c2,491$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.2670162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd621…b9efbacked Team WE7c2,477$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4825241.3%104 W · 148 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team WE32c2,465$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.81,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Team WE3c2,400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5de…cabebacked Team WE32c2,337$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.7719336.3%70 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Bilibili Gaming75c2,320$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58089347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Team WE22c2,300$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49964453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed Bilibili Gaming77c2,235$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.1131644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Bilibili Gaming78c2,200$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.832045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Team WE30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bd…3338backed Team WE18c2,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3504936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team WE17c2,000$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34585836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Bilibili Gaming72c1,970$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.234151.6%176 W · 165 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Bilibili Gaming67c1,950$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.266845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Team WE32c1,875$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60026349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Bilibili Gaming67c1,838$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.8162451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team WE25c1,787$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.742,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabd3…6635backed Team WE31c1,716$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5327839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Team WE1c1,700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked Team WE32c1,623$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.494856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed Team WE2c1,607$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1548533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13ba…53e4backed Team WE14c1,606$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23011943.7%52 W · 67 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Team WE20c1,601$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32519653.1%104 W · 92 L+15.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Bilibili Gaming68c1,600$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51639162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed Team WE32c1,581$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.924055%22 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Bilibili Gaming67c1,577$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.3337245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed Team WE31c1,571$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.016848.5%33 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Bilibili Gaming68c1,527$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.651,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75b…772cbacked Team WE31c1,508$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46012641.3%52 W · 74 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team WE33c1,500$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team WE7c1,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c1…024dbacked Team WE34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa08f…745bbacked Bilibili Gaming68c1,471$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.595255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Bilibili Gaming69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.2838462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf25…723cbacked Team WE4c1,440$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.134717%8 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Bilibili Gaming68c1,400$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.9889050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d9…753abacked Team WE31c1,300$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.994337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Team WE32c1,292$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.4495847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed Bilibili Gaming67c1,250$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.531953%169 W · 150 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Bilibili Gaming70c1,247$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.9126765.9%176 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Team WE32c1,240$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.7919041.6%79 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Bilibili Gaming72c1,206$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.728836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Bilibili Gaming77c1,185$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.5994444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team WE33c1,177$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.391,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team WE32c1,167$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.871,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Bilibili Gaming67c1,154$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.8211860.2%71 W · 47 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+44.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Bilibili Gaming76c1,139$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.181,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Team WE31c1,135$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.8532555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Team WE10c1,126$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5815534.8%54 W · 101 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked Team WE1c1,100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.84202.6%11 W · 409 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Bilibili Gaming70c1,080$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.9337948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf64e…a1ddbacked Bilibili Gaming77c1,024$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.638453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team WE32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…c59ebacked Team WE3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514418.8%27 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Team WE33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3307753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed Team WE32c999.99$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31541343.6%180 W · 233 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a59…68fbbacked Team WE30c999.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.998241.5%34 W · 48 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team WE3c999.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.11,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Team WE30c999.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9940726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Bilibili Gaming67c999.92$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.977460.8%45 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed Team WE33c960.61$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31750845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Team WE32c949.83$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4548844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.