TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, Team WE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$169,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,729 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3af1…d739backed Team WE50c42,667$21,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,333.6251146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Bilibili Gaming50c35,000$17,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,50096048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team WE50c33,488$16,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,619.181,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe100…4d41backed Bilibili Gaming50c16,098$8,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,04913251.5%68 W · 64 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07b1…6dfcbacked Bilibili Gaming49c11,224$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,724.473363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Bilibili Gaming51c10,251$5,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,023.0651348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked Bilibili Gaming50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00014342%60 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed Team WE50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00023445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Team WE50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020748.8%101 W · 106 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team WE51c9,289$4,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,739.152,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Team WE51c8,093$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,140.4634151.6%176 W · 165 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3601…cd3fbacked Bilibili Gaming50c5,992$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,996.0812451.6%64 W · 60 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef07…bb26backed Team WE51c5,678$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8967248.6%35 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Team WE49c5,034$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.4532555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Bilibili Gaming49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.951,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x797c…2038backed Team WE42c3,894$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.729446.8%44 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed Team WE50c3,313$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.366844.1%30 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Bilibili Gaming51c3,235$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.2927957.7%161 W · 118 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b17…d36dbacked Bilibili Gaming50c2,863$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.3710834.3%37 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Bilibili Gaming51c2,684$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.3522547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Bilibili Gaming52c2,481$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.0716946.7%79 W · 90 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Bilibili Gaming50c2,038$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.7739162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa08f…745bbacked Bilibili Gaming50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed Bilibili Gaming50c1,587$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.477744.2%34 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Bilibili Gaming51c1,580$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.246050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x489b…a6ecbacked Bilibili Gaming50c1,316$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6582138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0160…1224backed Bilibili Gaming50c1,300$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65023639.8%94 W · 142 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Team WE44c1,256$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.3652750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f80…ce62backed Bilibili Gaming71c1,130$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3304854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…f245backed Bilibili Gaming50c1,070$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5351258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10cf…60cfbacked Bilibili Gaming50c1,050$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.28943.8%39 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Bilibili Gaming50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Bilibili Gaming49c999$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.491,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfedc…d50bbacked Team WE51c982.29$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.971040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-38.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc09b…1478backed Team WE50c973.74$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.872536%9 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team WE52c967.19$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.092,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…ad2abacked Bilibili Gaming50c906$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Team WE29c854.99$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9537948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team WE54c645$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.31,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Team WE50c641.2$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.650956.2%286 W · 223 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6691…5a83backed Bilibili Gaming50c598.4$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.22934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team WE50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25048847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Team WE49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team WE51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…5fafbacked Bilibili Gaming50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25056744.8%254 W · 313 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e78…0261backed Bilibili Gaming50c408.48$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d29…65e7backed Bilibili Gaming48c400$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20718831.4%59 W · 129 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed Bilibili Gaming50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20010554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf19…79bbbacked Bilibili Gaming50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20016858.9%99 W · 69 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3105…2e7ebacked Team WE51c323.53$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1656858.8%40 W · 28 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+35.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4948…08bdbacked Bilibili Gaming50c320$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16029833.9%101 W · 197 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d3…1b1fbacked Bilibili Gaming50c310.6$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56fa…2b82backed Bilibili Gaming50c310.58$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.295052%26 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6754…7fa6backed Bilibili Gaming50c308.8$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Bilibili Gaming50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15065063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ad…734fbacked Team WE50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15016047.5%76 W · 84 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…cd9dbacked Bilibili Gaming50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15022562.2%140 W · 85 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team WE50c277.86$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.931,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Bilibili Gaming50c220$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11025640.6%104 W · 152 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Team WE31c208.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7169741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Bilibili Gaming50c207.3$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6564443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x773f…cffabacked Bilibili Gaming50c203.76$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Bilibili Gaming50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10020551.7%106 W · 99 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Team WE50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015861.4%97 W · 61 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed Team WE51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10218553%98 W · 87 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcda7…af42backed Team WE50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003360.6%20 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Bilibili Gaming69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6262649.8%312 W · 314 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9f…0c25backed Bilibili Gaming48c199.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10428353%150 W · 133 L+28.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+32.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda6f…2ad7backed Team WE51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011443.9%50 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dee…30b1backed Team WE51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019663.3%124 W · 72 L+17.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team WE50c184.4$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.11,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Bilibili Gaming50c162.02$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.0163944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked Team WE63c158.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014160.3%85 W · 56 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Team WE51c153.76$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4215534.8%54 W · 101 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…bf6cbacked Bilibili Gaming51c152.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1512348.8%60 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team WE56c150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Team WE51c137.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7052441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Team WE26c125.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.512128.9%35 W · 86 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed Bilibili Gaming50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6051247.3%242 W · 270 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd0f…3656backed Team WE51c117.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.983070%21 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Bilibili Gaming53c117$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4997854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c0e…8177backed Team WE50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5068253.5%365 W · 317 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Bilibili Gaming66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3477741.7%324 W · 453 L-27.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Bilibili Gaming50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5018051.1%92 W · 88 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d45…1c86backed Bilibili Gaming50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5012251.6%63 W · 59 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36dc…531bbacked Bilibili Gaming50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504870.8%34 W · 14 L+8.9wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+36.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed Bilibili Gaming49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5126048.8%127 W · 133 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked Bilibili Gaming50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5013964%89 W · 50 L+12.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe8e…f83abacked Bilibili Gaming50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36de…cf07backed Bilibili Gaming50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5015359.5%91 W · 62 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2d…4061backed Bilibili Gaming50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507042.9%30 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe1f…c18fbacked Bilibili Gaming50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505429.6%16 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Team WE26c87.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7540637.7%153 W · 253 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Team WE27c87.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5123136.4%84 W · 147 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x336a…1915backed Bilibili Gaming50c86$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Bilibili Gaming51c81.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8524535.9%88 W · 157 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Team WE51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.835642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf458…f266backed Bilibili Gaming51c78.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.662254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed Team WE50c73.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7539652%206 W · 190 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a6…c03bbacked Team WE57c70.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011946.2%55 W · 64 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.