TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, Team WE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$770,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$853,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $770,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Team WE9c138,912$12,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,338.542,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Bilibili Gaming76c82,675$63,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,652.9996048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Team WE24c52,000$12,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,48019239.1%75 W · 117 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bilibili Gaming75c44,975$33,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,036.651,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Team WE25c33,376$8,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,475.0838235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked Team WE0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Bilibili Gaming76c22,222$16,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,333.283764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team WE24c20,633$4,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,951.963944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Team WE19c20,000$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,719.9932234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Bilibili Gaming75c14,992$11,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,804.1334151.6%176 W · 165 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Team WE23c14,926$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,475.6454934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Bilibili Gaming76c12,000$9,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,91043442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Bilibili Gaming75c11,095$8,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,742.911,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team WE24c10,356$2,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.431,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Team WE25c10,092$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52313947.5%66 W · 73 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4ae…8eadbacked Team WE25c10,066$2,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,486.214245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf184…c2d7backed Bilibili Gaming77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9814553.1%77 W · 68 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed Team WE21c9,534$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02418429.9%55 W · 129 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Team WE1c8,851$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6612326%32 W · 91 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team WE24c8,735$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.311,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team WE26c8,022$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.5485836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Team WE25c7,365$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.2546050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Bilibili Gaming77c6,576$5,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.3959554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1850…8903backed Bilibili Gaming76c6,437$4,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.874348.8%21 W · 22 L-6.8wins-0.16per pick65cpaid-22.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team WE24c6,300$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51230321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…a754backed Team WE2c6,017$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4235323.2%82 W · 271 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2627…fa13backed Team WE24c6,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9911940.3%48 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Team WE23c6,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.9949940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed Team WE25c5,100$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2758334.9%29 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed Bilibili Gaming76c5,100$3,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2246943.5%30 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Team WE24c5,085$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.3417348%83 W · 90 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team WE11c5,000$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.3638624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Team WE18c4,205$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.5220644.7%92 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked Team WE16c4,077$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.9353829.9%161 W · 377 L-19.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Bilibili Gaming75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0009853.1%52 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Bilibili Gaming76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96096250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team WE22c4,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8801,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Bilibili Gaming76c3,871$2,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.271,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db8…b4c1backed Team WE10c3,737$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.235824.1%14 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4097…9397backed Bilibili Gaming76c3,530$2,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.091145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f7…a5e1backed Team WE11c3,517$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.849037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Team WE24c3,354$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.9720036.5%73 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd76b…e9d5backed Team WE17c3,211$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5314946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a1…f140backed Team WE11c3,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3303545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team WE19c2,773$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.212,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf23a…50f6backed Team WE5c2,763$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.113112.9%4 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffa1…6340backed Team WE27c2,674$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.831926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Bilibili Gaming77c2,478$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.7262451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Team WE24c2,403$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.4823152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x968b…87f6backed Bilibili Gaming75c2,300$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5751353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f8…2239backed Bilibili Gaming77c2,183$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.041250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde27…d27cbacked Bilibili Gaming77c2,127$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.98425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Team WE25c2,100$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.231,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98eb…8c14backed Bilibili Gaming75c2,100$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bae…ae9fbacked Bilibili Gaming74c2,100$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54624563.7%156 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Team WE21c2,063$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.641,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Team WE22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44047047.4%223 W · 247 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Team WE22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4403953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Team WE16c2,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33011358.4%66 W · 47 L+12.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+28.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Team WE24c1,968$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.3543640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Bilibili Gaming77c1,932$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.832,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Team WE9c1,916$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9312128.9%35 W · 86 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x115a…a690backed Bilibili Gaming77c1,703$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.741145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Team WE1c1,700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Team WE24c1,602$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.3725332%81 W · 172 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team WE13c1,550$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.642,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Bilibili Gaming76c1,503$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.2948844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Bilibili Gaming78c1,502$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.2297854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2d0…1a68backed Team WE1c1,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107826.9%21 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Team WE26c1,490$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.428836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4a6…6c3fbacked Bilibili Gaming77c1,479$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Team WE1c1,402$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b9…9bf6backed Team WE21c1,378$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.646743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9df6…379abacked Team WE25c1,332$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3332356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f26…0efcbacked Bilibili Gaming77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team WE19c1,292$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.581,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf5…75efbacked Bilibili Gaming78c1,289$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.78728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Team WE24c1,250$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0749847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Bilibili Gaming76c1,235$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.839951.1%204 W · 195 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb47…3502backed Team WE24c1,233$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x63bb…54fbbacked Team WE24c1,213$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.229151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Team WE1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Team WE24c1,200$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28826729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Team WE11c1,111$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2240726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e3…761fbacked Bilibili Gaming76c1,107$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.5812260.7%74 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a0…18c3backed Team WE2c1,063$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a1…504cbacked Team WE25c1,036$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.052828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Bilibili Gaming76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24048847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Bilibili Gaming78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Team WE22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa864…c51bbacked Bilibili Gaming75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2504856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…f245backed Bilibili Gaming77c940$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bf…b006backed Bilibili Gaming78c908.57$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.152871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x341f…0442backed Team WE4c899.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.57811.5%9 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…b70cbacked Bilibili Gaming76c883.67$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6814641.8%61 W · 85 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed Bilibili Gaming76c880.3$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.272536%9 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Team WE24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20055145%248 W · 303 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a6…1c3fbacked Bilibili Gaming76c825.01$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+83.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Team WE22c800$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6745338%172 W · 281 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Team WE19c750$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.522146.6%103 W · 118 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.