TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, Team WE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$892,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,007,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $892,255 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 385 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e3e…f882backed Team WE5c89,489$4,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,700.661,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Team WE5c57,582$2,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,894.6267553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Team WE33c48,500$16,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,081.7189943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Bilibili Gaming67c32,130$21,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,502.6425546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf23c…9f81backed Bilibili Gaming67c23,269$15,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,606.7315062%93 W · 57 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team WE22c18,398$4,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,125.781,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team WE29c18,266$5,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,297.11,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Team WE40c16,999$6,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,844.0735448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked Team WE0c15,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0c…6ca7backed Bilibili Gaming70c14,144$9,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,243.127054.3%38 W · 32 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed Bilibili Gaming71c10,633$7,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,083.458651.2%44 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Bilibili Gaming66c10,014$6,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,403.720748.8%101 W · 106 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce29…3b0dbacked Bilibili Gaming67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3005952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked Team WE39c10,000$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.6525944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Bilibili Gaming61c9,980$6,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,850.7825244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed Team WE30c8,888$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.399345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Team WE25c8,713$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.0936943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Bilibili Gaming72c8,600$6,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.981,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Bilibili Gaming71c7,472$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.9446050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Team WE9c7,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62055639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Bilibili Gaming69c6,649$4,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.638235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team WE20c6,226$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.062,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf030…12e2backed Bilibili Gaming70c5,941$4,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.7513371.4%95 W · 38 L+23.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x02fe…1091backed Team WE28c5,666$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-64.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Team WE13c5,008$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.4913545.9%62 W · 73 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed Team WE35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.9948533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Team WE37c4,483$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.2228948.1%139 W · 150 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team WE10c4,439$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.972,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99ef…ba25backed Team WE29c4,429$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.568043.8%35 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf64e…a1ddbacked Bilibili Gaming76c4,306$3,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.728453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Team WE28c4,301$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.21,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Bilibili Gaming66c4,242$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.318339.8%33 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f7…a5e1backed Team WE14c4,195$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.519037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Bilibili Gaming68c4,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28057957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bd…3338backed Team WE12c4,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.994936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Team WE31c3,870$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.5717348%83 W · 90 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Bilibili Gaming71c3,825$2,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.2670162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x180e…b3a6backed Team WE30c3,667$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1006134.4%21 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team WE7c3,497$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.9338624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked Team WE28c3,466$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.413530.4%41 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Bilibili Gaming74c3,460$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.5128836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50fa…907fbacked Team WE5c3,300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.510023%23 W · 77 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+68.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed Bilibili Gaming68c3,292$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.4921861%133 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd501…b86ebacked Bilibili Gaming70c3,014$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.2112045%54 W · 66 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Team WE29c3,000$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.967753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe45d…230dbacked Bilibili Gaming67c2,845$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.531656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed Team WE19c2,821$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.7931644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdac3…66d8backed Bilibili Gaming70c2,685$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.247052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Bilibili Gaming61c2,600$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02636155.4%200 W · 161 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team WE27c2,475$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.121,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Team WE30c2,418$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.9948844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team WE26c2,383$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.882,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb2…ee14backed Bilibili Gaming68c2,207$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.622070%14 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked Team WE7c2,206$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.863352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team WE30c2,148$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.485836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team WE36c2,077$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.621,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team WE41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8202,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Bilibili Gaming70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Team WE22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.996719.4%13 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Team WE27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.981,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Team WE14c2,000$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8840726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team WE31c1,997$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.0989347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team WE30c1,955$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.532844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Bilibili Gaming73c1,893$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.542,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed08…ed3bbacked Team WE5c1,781$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2822444.6%100 W · 124 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked Team WE39c1,708$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66623549.4%116 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Team WE1c1,700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Team WE27c1,672$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.271,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Team WE18c1,600$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.041,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Bilibili Gaming70c1,600$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8b…ce22backed Bilibili Gaming74c1,555$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.822759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team WE33c1,520$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.63,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team WE30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45084050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Team WE21c1,434$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.158559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x369f…1706backed Bilibili Gaming71c1,408$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.235046%23 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Bilibili Gaming73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8638462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa08f…745bbacked Bilibili Gaming73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.865255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team WE31c1,366$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.352,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7b7…c49bbacked Bilibili Gaming64c1,332$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.2316253.7%87 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Bilibili Gaming67c1,327$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.7439162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Team WE8c1,317$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2463742.7%272 W · 365 L-2.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Team WE39c1,312$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.0528553%151 W · 134 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed Team WE38c1,306$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50077746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked Team WE29c1,288$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.5229236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a93…8e36backed Bilibili Gaming80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25010365%67 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked Team WE1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.354202.6%11 W · 409 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Team WE33c1,195$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40026349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Team WE15c1,158$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6367115.4%103 W · 568 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Team WE13c1,095$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.421,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Team WE38c1,050$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39940741.5%169 W · 238 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Team WE11c1,050$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3415534.8%54 W · 101 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Team WE38c1,035$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.5995847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Team WE23c1,015$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.6534151.6%176 W · 165 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…214ebacked Team WE10c1,002$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed Team WE39c1,000$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38541343.6%180 W · 233 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58ce…e206backed Team WE36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36022452.2%117 W · 107 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed Bilibili Gaming72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28068443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f1…e67bbacked Team WE40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005149%25 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Team WE30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30047047.4%223 W · 247 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Team WE30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.