Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Holger Rune vs Tomas Etcheverry
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4042c1f828779eee3822669bbc56701313141c303a02978245a41d8418347d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Runeof Rune, Etcheverry
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Rune | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 682 | 49.6%338 W · 344 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Etcheverry | 22c | 9,524$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Etcheverry | 23c | 8,103$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.77 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Rune | 72c | 3,621$2,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.83 | 192 | 34.4%66 W · 126 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Etcheverry | 26c | 3,000$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rune | 61c | 2,619$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.93 | 6,798 | 36.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Etcheverry | 7c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Etcheverry | 18c | 1,999$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.37 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rune | 72c | 1,805$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.85 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Etcheverry | 25c | 1,647$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.93 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Etcheverry | 22c | 1,603$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.63 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Etcheverry | 32c | 1,180$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Rune | 78c | 1,146$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.21 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Rune | 57c | 1,099$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.57 | 1,461 | 48.8%713 W · 748 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Etcheverry | 19c | 1,060$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.01 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Rune | 72c | 972.03$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.52 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Rune | 77c | 700$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d4…dbd6backed Rune | 65c | 634.12$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.94 | 335 | 55.8%187 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Etcheverry | 11c | 620.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,356 | 46.5%1,096 W · 1,260 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Etcheverry | 19c | 519.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Etcheverry | 37c | 489.88$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.52 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Etcheverry | 22c | 471.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Rune | 59c | 459.79$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Etcheverry | 61c | 445$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.27 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Etcheverry | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Rune | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Rune | 77c | 318.83$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 754 | 61.8%466 W · 288 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Rune | 68c | 317.59$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rune | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rune | 69c | 261$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…b52cbacked Etcheverry | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rune | 77c | 216.85$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Etcheverry | 47c | 214.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Rune | 71c | 213.13$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Rune | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Etcheverry | 17c | 193.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Etcheverry | 22c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Etcheverry | 22c | 142.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…e848backed Rune | 59c | 135$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rune | 73c | 133.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Etcheverry | 27c | 131.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Rune | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rune | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Etcheverry | 22c | 101.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rune | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Etcheverry | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Etcheverry | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…e092backed Etcheverry | 24c | 84.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Rune | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune | 74c | 63.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 11,877 | 43.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L | +19.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Rune | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 240 | 70%168 W · 72 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Rune | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rune | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Etcheverry | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Rune | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Rune | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Rune | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 317 | 55.8%177 W · 140 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rune | 77c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Rune | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Rune | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Rune | 60c | 21.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…9687backed Rune | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Rune | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.