South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb42c0af3ce2b3db4bab3d7419bf99a2f2706e41b2ce0c5c372adf896e4e8f50b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 31c | 3,100$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.12 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 30c | 3,029$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.46 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,363$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.89 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed Yes | 73c | 1,097$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Yes | 70c | 1,010$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 38c | 994.52$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Yes | 71c | 890.01$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes | 30c | 869.28$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 27c | 600$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 33c | 577.82$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 21c | 362$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f90…1b35backed Yes | 70c | 295$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 74cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 57c | 273.83$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.89 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 74c | 271.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…63b2backed Yes | 35c | 200.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 41c | 182.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5a56backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 74c | 135.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…d3c7backed Yes | 35c | 89.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…8e9fbacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 66.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…b27fbacked Yes | 29c | 62.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 27c | 61.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 25c | 56.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 74c | 53.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f9d7backed Yes | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…6327backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…a237backed Yes | 71c | 23.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…5d7bbacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-09-25?Yes won
- Will São Paulo FC vs. LDU de Quito end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.