Mls · resolved market
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96138ba3100c0833c45cccc5ba1d7e2e0945459a1cea577cc80142d7662b0933
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ef…5232backed Yes | 39c | 25,452$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,452.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 64c | 23,852$15,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,218.32 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 37c | 8,311$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,268.03 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 61c | 7,176$4,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,397.31 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 61c | 5,874$3,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,579.98 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 38c | 4,050$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,511 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 21c | 3,971$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,120.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 39c | 3,637$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 60c | 2,500$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed No | 60c | 2,500$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 60c | 2,500$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 1,917$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.16 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 57c | 1,718$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 60c | 1,653$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 24c | 1,613$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed No | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 61c | 999.74$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.42 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 902.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.78 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 782$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.23 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 60c | 750$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed No | 60c | 750$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…7b47backed Yes | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 61c | 638.82$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.68 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 61c | 600$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 60c | 560$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…02a3backed Yes | 37c | 540.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 36c | 538$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.12 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 39c | 492$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Yes | 43c | 465.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 39c | 455.67$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.71 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 62c | 447.76$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.12 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 425$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.01 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 61c | 419$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked No | 61c | 394.3$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4b…8ab7backed Yes | 37c | 366.76$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 63c | 319.3$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…db41backed Yes | 36c | 278.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31ca…6e94backed Yes | 36c | 276.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…2723backed Yes | 37c | 269.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…9803backed Yes | 38c | 260.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc432…7163backed Yes | 78c | 256.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Yes | 77c | 245.18$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 80c | 238.09$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 60c | 191.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 40c | 174$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 39c | 172.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…799ebacked Yes | 37c | 143.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…3643backed Yes | 38c | 134.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ad…4a01backed Yes | 38c | 133.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…8e8dbacked Yes | 38c | 132.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 39c | 128.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 42c | 107.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 61c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa87…dd7abacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 38c | 65.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 63c | 61.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 61c | 55.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…5f03backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fb…c549backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…69d3backed Yes | 53c | 45.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked No | 62c | 44.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 30c | 37.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…2a39backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 65c | 24.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c637backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7184…f314backed Yes | 60c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will Nashville SC vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw?No won
- Will Nashville SC win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.