La Liga · resolved market
Will Osasuna win on 2025-09-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d047a24512c5a16d8b91d1bf4ef0a4ff6a90c35d7c5f98a180506ebb9f268f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 35c | 2,365$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.45 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 42c | 1,400$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814 | 139 | 69.8%97 W · 42 L | +30.1wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 34c | 1,232$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 1,154$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.11 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked No | 38c | 1,045$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 67c | 805.13$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…c811backed Yes | 38c | 532.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 36c | 410$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 64c | 357.63$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.85 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 36c | 320.76$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 65c | 308.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Yes | 65c | 306.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 78c | 278.15$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…a4d3backed Yes | 76c | 236.84$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 62c | 224.93$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…4d3cbacked Yes | 38c | 221.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 65c | 195$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Yes | 72c | 194.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 67c | 149.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 64c | 138.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 33c | 133.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 34c | 125$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Yes | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…f6fabacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 62c | 94.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…2e64backed Yes | 68c | 59.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 33c | 52.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…2d55backed Yes | 63c | 46.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 57c | 46.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de9…3171backed Yes | 65c | 38.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 63c | 35.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 33c | 32.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.7wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273a…6d54backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…9803backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…a5febacked Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Osasuna win on 2025-09-14?this page
- Will Osasuna vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.