TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, Shifters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$905,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,002,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $905,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4cd…6b12backed Shifters0c176,474$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.583360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked G2 Esports51c29,546$15,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,494.031,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe100…4d41backed Shifters58c16,545$9,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,546.4313251.5%68 W · 64 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Shifters42c16,000$6,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,732.291,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Shifters37c14,905$5,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,575.191,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Shifters14c14,015$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.0838235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Shifters31c12,864$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.61,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked G2 Esports1c12,000$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,850711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Shifters0c11,498$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed G2 Esports56c10,665$6,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,663.2135448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked G2 Esports70c10,620$7,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,159.8566559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Shifters26c10,534$2,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,725.8757246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Shifters30c10,448$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.211,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Shifters23c10,415$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.11,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed G2 Esports80c10,000$7,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.3240370.2%283 W · 120 L+31.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Shifters0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Shifters0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3a…5ad0backed Shifters27c9,089$2,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.374639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf23c…9f81backed Shifters50c7,484$3,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,721.9415062%93 W · 57 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed G2 Esports76c7,332$5,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.8736643.7%160 W · 206 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Shifters24c6,330$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.6781143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2383…072fbacked G2 Esports47c6,000$2,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,187.126744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed Shifters32c5,827$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.7430546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed G2 Esports77c5,406$4,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.3115352.9%81 W · 72 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked G2 Esports61c5,286$3,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.121,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked G2 Esports79c5,132$4,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.4814761.2%90 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Shifters11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.991,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked G2 Esports59c4,805$2,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.4467553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd967…1409backed G2 Esports60c4,568$2,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.5912160.3%73 W · 48 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked G2 Esports64c4,197$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.4230554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed G2 Esports57c4,174$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.871,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Shifters26c3,946$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.961,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked G2 Esports71c3,938$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.721968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Shifters49c3,840$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90036943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked Shifters17c3,295$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.5613530.4%41 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Shifters16c3,086$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.362,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked G2 Esports73c3,000$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8201,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Shifters52c2,996$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.645248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed G2 Esports65c2,929$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.3839162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce7d…898ebacked Shifters34c2,716$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.17054.3%38 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed G2 Esports76c2,647$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.5551348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d91…16abbacked Shifters52c2,613$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.3813456.7%76 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x880d…50b8backed Shifters58c2,596$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd29b…96adbacked Shifters42c2,466$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.0216366.3%108 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Shifters60c2,458$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.3653355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shifters13c2,403$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.222,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed G2 Esports79c2,276$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.5362158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed Shifters15c2,200$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.658334.9%29 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Shifters58c2,185$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.1512128.9%35 W · 86 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Shifters15c2,163$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7375630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked G2 Esports71c2,098$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.1685742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked G2 Esports78c2,069$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.881,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Shifters12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed G2 Esports47c2,000$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.489943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed G2 Esports67c2,000$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.629758.2%173 W · 124 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Shifters24c1,978$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.1769041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked G2 Esports60c1,954$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.0694444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Shifters34c1,901$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.561,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x067e…baafbacked Shifters1c1,876$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5110957.8%63 W · 46 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x369f…1706backed Shifters57c1,752$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.755046%23 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed Shifters43c1,732$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.5916451.2%84 W · 80 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Shifters67c1,652$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10046258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Shifters46c1,531$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.235058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed G2 Esports53c1,500$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.761,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed G2 Esports73c1,500$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9941343.6%180 W · 233 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed G2 Esports59c1,485$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.211,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Shifters34c1,474$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.452,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed G2 Esports72c1,401$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.7564247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5a…f616backed G2 Esports77c1,367$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.4811464%73 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe92…4215backed G2 Esports46c1,333$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.691225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f80…ce62backed G2 Esports77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.74854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed Shifters61c1,276$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.8718061.7%111 W · 69 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Shifters16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030621.2%65 W · 241 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed G2 Esports57c1,211$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.731,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Shifters35c1,209$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.385836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed G2 Esports1c1,200$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1885833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Shifters9c1,174$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6887844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked Shifters13c1,164$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2913150.4%66 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x532b…30c1backed Shifters53c1,155$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.579339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked G2 Esports64c1,126$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.782,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked G2 Esports57c1,100$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46830357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbb…0ac2backed Shifters8c1,078$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6216242%68 W · 94 L-0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed G2 Esports73c1,068$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.4926661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked G2 Esports70c1,055$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.6926164.4%168 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fe…211ebacked Shifters19c1,033$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick28cpaid+13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Shifters13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35b7…fbcfbacked Shifters48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48027367%183 W · 90 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d76…1298backed G2 Esports76c999.99$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2404845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed Shifters54c999.99$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9931953%169 W · 150 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Shifters39c986.04$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.052,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed G2 Esports63c960.26$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.481,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf19…79bbbacked G2 Esports44c960$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.616858.9%99 W · 69 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5fd2…afcebacked G2 Esports34c956.79$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.381346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed G2 Esports50c941.48$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.1985442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Shifters27c931.56$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506719.4%13 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Shifters12c931.12$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7315147%71 W · 80 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Shifters21c909.73$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.551,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked G2 Esports76c879.1$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.9824137.8%91 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7374…f266backed Shifters47c849.26$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005740.4%23 W · 34 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Shifters12c839.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.817839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.