NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-14.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4584234cca90d933b616c2523a5953f675fa161e3f16f8220016be880f9ec49

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Magic, Nets
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $84,977
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $85,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,977 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4335…fc2fbacked Magic	49c	39,100$19,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,159.11	173	54.3%94 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Nets	51c	20,000$10,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,800	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Nets	52c	17,698$9,153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,545.07	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	51c	9,987$5,127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,859.83	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Nets	51c	7,500$3,825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,674.99	346	45.4%157 W · 189 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Magic	48c	6,249$3,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,006.52	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Magic	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Magic	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nets	54c	2,575$1,386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,189.47	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Nets	52c	2,077$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$996.92	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Magic	45c	2,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	130	63.8%83 W · 47 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Nets	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960	220	41.4%91 W · 129 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic	48c	1,969$945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$945.12	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked Nets	53c	1,562$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$733.93	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Magic	46c	1,503$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.79	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Magic	48c	1,292$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Nets	50c	1,030$515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.22	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Magic	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	124	52.4%65 W · 59 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Magic	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-14.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic	48c	932.89$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.77	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Magic	48c	900$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432	169	43.8%74 W · 95 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb00…42e9backed Magic	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Nets	53c	603.77$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.77	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Magic	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	394	49.2%194 W · 200 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Magic	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Magic	48c	493$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.98	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Magic	47c	416.74$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.87	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e99…dea0backed Nets	52c	411$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.28	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa157…0674backed Magic	48c	410.98$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.27	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Magic	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Nets	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	77	41.6%32 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic	48c	384$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.32	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Magic	48c	379.17$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	271	61.3%166 W · 105 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Magic	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Magic	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Magic	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b13…d8afbacked Nets	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Nets	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	1,290	44%567 W · 723 L	+35.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x310a…d559backed Nets	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Magic	49c	186.08$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.18	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f1…f95fbacked Magic	48c	184.17$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.2	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Nets	53c	157.9$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.05	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Nets	52c	134.7$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.66	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic	47c	125$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.75	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Nets	53c	110$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.7	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7eb7…8d07backed Magic	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Magic	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	426	40.4%172 W · 254 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Magic	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Magic	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	171	41.5%71 W · 100 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3906…f74bbacked Nets	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Magic	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Magic	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	173	49.1%85 W · 88 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Nets	52c	98.83$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.44	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Magic	44c	73.85$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.57	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Nets	53c	64.15$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.15	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3303…03afbacked Magic	48c	62.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	60cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Magic	49c	58.18$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.51	264	39.4%104 W · 160 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic	41c	58.18$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Magic	49c	57.7$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.27	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Nets	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	-7.6wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Nets	51c	54$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.46	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Nets	50c	51.89$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.95	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Nets	53c	48.11$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.84	353	52.4%185 W · 168 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be4…f39cbacked Nets	53c	46$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.62	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f1…1744backed Magic	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Magic	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	199	44.7%89 W · 110 L	-15.0wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc18c…f683backed Nets	51c	39.08$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.15	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd44…b2e2backed Magic	49c	34.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Nets	52c	33.65$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.15	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Nets	52c	30.16$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.56	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Nets	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1acc…35b7backed Nets	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	48c	27.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46a0…f721backed Magic	50c	22.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe70a…6a5cbacked Nets	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-4.2wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c63…a2f9backed Magic	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-14.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event