NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d3bdaa4c75226dbe505eb00a4a056af309ab468a9338e5466d9599d66566214

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,357 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	41c	677.97$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.97	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under	59c	677.97$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.97	369	43.4%160 W · 209 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa43…5813backed Under	48c	515.75$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.04	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+3.2wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	40c	482.48$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.32	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	33c	324.69$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.36	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Under	59c	300$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123	701	53.5%375 W · 326 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under	67c	235$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.55	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2336…a7bbbacked Over	41c	183$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.03	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5072…c02abacked Over	41c	181$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.21	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.33per pick	49cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x442d…c987backed Over	41c	179$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.39	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.4wins	+0.27per pick	51cpaid	+49.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0f7…2b92backed Over	41c	176$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.16	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	50c	171.48$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.74	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4c…1d5dbacked Under	59c	170$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.7	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c30…0bf3backed Under	59c	169$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.29	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65b…0419backed Under	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	147	63.3%93 W · 54 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a53…4d81backed Under	59c	166$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.06	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe91f…a9aebacked Over	41c	164$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.24	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	47cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc3…5a9abacked Under	59c	163$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.83	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c8…753fbacked Over	41c	155$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.55	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.34per pick	51cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7685…9624backed Over	40c	152$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.22	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c50…8b7abacked Under	59c	152$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.32	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	49cpaid	+52.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32c3…2f56backed Under	59c	145$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.45	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb000…d219backed Under	60c	138$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.2	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	42c	135$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.28	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa43…3215backed Under	61c	131.15$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.15	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	51c	101.52$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.52	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over	52c	99.66$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.82	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	57c	63$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.91	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over	21c	49.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Under	61c	40.98$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.98	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	39c	39.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b7…b825backed Over	57c	36.4$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	56cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95a7…ecdfbacked Under	61c	22.79$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.89	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+3.6wins	+0.19per pick	55cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3162…d21cbacked Under	68c	22.06$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.06	88	59.1%52 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…6567backed Under	68c	16.18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	57cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event