NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Magic: O/U 222.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x456878738b40ee14258387cc57e25c3fef995d7493435855f00a0f20f6aef1f1

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,768
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,768 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9376…c075backed Over	51c	2,499$1,279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,279.28	141	56%79 W · 62 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	2,021$903 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,118.67	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Under	49c	1,499$734 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$764.28	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	156	56.4%88 W · 68 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Under	49c	450$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.5	149	53%79 W · 70 L	+10.0wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over	52c	397.6$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.75	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa499…7873backed Over	57c	352$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.64	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over	57c	309$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.92	339	50.1%170 W · 169 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8556…a766backed Over	57c	175$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.75	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	56cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Over	55c	144.16$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	199	57.8%115 W · 84 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	41c	121$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.61	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222e…0d53backed Under	59c	121$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.61	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+110.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	44c	110.71$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8e…5ad4backed Over	56c	75$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.22per pick	49cpaid	-51%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f4d…6055backed Over	54c	72.72$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x230a…59b1backed Over	56c	71.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	46c	71$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.66	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3b…51dabacked Over	57c	63.16$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Under	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…aec0backed Over	57c	42.11$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fc…0ab0backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.41per pick	66cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x210c…6567backed Over	52c	32.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	57cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf597…f4aebacked Over	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-3.7wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Over	55c	21.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b8…8e45backed Over	55c	21.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	63cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…03efbacked Over	56c	21.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	74	55.4%41 W · 33 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8043…7fe3backed Over	56c	21.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd4…3ae9backed Over	57c	21.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x734e…88e5backed Over	57c	21.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…cebcbacked Over	57c	21.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Magic: O/U 222.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event