NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a69b4929b4a581c72f2f5bf9ec6899af0a36c01d937c92755afd28f8e3f32b7

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $217,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $217,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,076 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2635…5408backed Over	44c	209,668$92,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92,253.95	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	56c	86,644$48,521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38,123.5	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Under	56c	80,000$44,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35,200	192	49.5%95 W · 97 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	56c	21,788$12,201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,587.43	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under	56c	11,200$6,272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,928	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	56c	6,000$3,360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,640	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Under	56c	3,000$1,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,320	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	44c	1,795$790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$789.8	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Under	52c	1,740$905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$835	278	40.6%113 W · 165 L	-22.5wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	56c	619$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.36	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over	45c	392$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.4	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	55c	391.04$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.27	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb0…d484backed Under	56c	357.14$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.14	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-33%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	56c	266.77$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.84	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeee…a4a9backed Under	47c	205$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.65	63	60.3%38 W · 25 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under	56c	196.43$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.43	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	53c	185$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.13	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc3…5a9abacked Over	42c	184$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.28	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4813…5d7dbacked Over	43c	182$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.26	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b6e…401cbacked Over	44c	178$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.32	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.30per pick	46cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x68cd…9ea6backed Under	57c	177$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.11	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0cb…842fbacked Under	58c	176$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.92	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c50…8b7abacked Under	56c	173$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.12	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	49cpaid	+52.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	40c	134.33$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.73	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21e2…bd6dbacked Under	60c	134.33$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.73	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Under	61c	122.18$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.18	168	52.4%88 W · 80 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8655…6022backed Under	59c	120.34$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.34	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba2…eaa6backed Over	48c	104.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	163	57.1%93 W · 70 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x646c…3210backed Under	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	89	42.7%38 W · 51 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc319…a062backed Over	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Under	52c	88.5$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.48	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	45c	58$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.97	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	95	49.5%47 W · 48 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over	38c	48.79$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	44c	37.38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed Over	50c	35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefb2…b043backed Over	72c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	52	67.3%35 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event