NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-13.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x100c0e668b419f091e0a6846119a9f906ab1c07f2a422497859fe3126698147f

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Magic, Nets
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,597
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,597 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Nets	47c	9,486$4,505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,980.73	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic	52c	5,212$2,703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,703.22	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Magic	53c	4,242$2,248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,248.26	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	47c	2,467$1,169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,297.56	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf706…e173backed Nets	48c	1,400$672 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$728	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+80.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd1b…1265backed Magic	52c	1,400$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$728	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nets	47c	1,352$635 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$716.6	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Magic	53c	1,273$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$671.92	142	54.9%78 W · 64 L	+9.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7f4…95c3backed Nets	48c	1,070$514 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Magic	53c	1,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	84	45.2%38 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Nets	47c	1,000$470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…9e61backed Magic	52c	900$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3235…5a6bbacked Nets	48c	900$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc4…541dbacked Nets	50c	510$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Magic	54c	380$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.2	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Magic	51c	364.29$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.29	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Nets	47c	334.56$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.57	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Magic	53c	283.02$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Magic	54c	240$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.4	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Magic	50c	240$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	163	46.6%76 W · 87 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed Magic	53c	222.64$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	180	47.2%85 W · 95 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbb…ac38backed Nets	53c	211.45$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.63	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Nets	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Magic	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3dd…45d3backed Magic	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Magic	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic	47c	186.45$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.63	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa29d…fbc0backed Nets	49c	178$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.78	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b06…dedebacked Nets	49c	175$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.25	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccd4…815cbacked Magic	51c	166$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.66	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f1…075bbacked Magic	51c	165$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ce7…e1c6backed Magic	52c	157$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Nets	48c	150$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e30…89c9backed Magic	52c	144$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…33dcbacked Magic	52c	144$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa36…a9c8backed Magic	52c	131$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ae…4fc8backed Magic	52c	127$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x457b…f8a6backed Magic	52c	127$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6484…c4c0backed Magic	52c	121$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe223…f064backed Magic	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4130…2bdabacked Magic	52c	119$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe49a…f498backed Magic	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Magic	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	158	38.6%61 W · 97 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Nets	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	171	48%82 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Magic	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58e…0893backed Magic	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Magic	52c	96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	133	58.6%78 W · 55 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2921…78b3backed Magic	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1005…4ea6backed Magic	50c	87$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf02…38b9backed Nets	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Magic	48c	75$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd9…675ebacked Magic	50c	63$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Magic	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nets	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Nets	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	320	41.9%134 W · 186 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b0b…1466backed Magic	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x003b…4da0backed Magic	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-6.6wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5729…c366backed Magic	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7b…7701backed Magic	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95a7…ecdfbacked Magic	54c	25.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+3.6wins	+0.19per pick	55cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-13.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event