NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Magic: O/U 223.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66c92f0d805ea0a6fde91b926278b1291a4c89fec71d3b43f3249fdf01483f97

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $73,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,725 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Over	52c	49,527$25,897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,896.76	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	29,485$14,231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,253.74	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under	48c	20,123$9,608 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,515.15	724	50.7%367 W · 357 L	+13.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over	49c	7,000$3,430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,430	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under	52c	6,979$3,629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,349.76	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Over	47c	2,000$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930	141	56%79 W · 62 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Under	51c	1,200$612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$587.98	339	45.1%153 W · 186 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	49c	1,113$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Under	58c	1,102$637 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.06	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	48c	895$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.4	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…e957backed Over	54c	758.96$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.84	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Over	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	77	41.6%32 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	43c	415.79$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.61	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1bc…bd81backed Over	54c	370.46$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	135	58.5%79 W · 56 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under	58c	247$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.74	156	56.4%88 W · 68 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Under	52c	230.77$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.77	150	55.3%83 W · 67 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a61…bbb2backed Over	55c	198.42$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.13	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	+4.3wins	+0.10per pick	42cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x068f…4594backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Under	49c	165$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.15	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Under	51c	149.99$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.49	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	47c	137.02$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Over	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	157	59.9%94 W · 63 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Under	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7eb7…8d07backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb3…ffafbacked Over	55c	92.73$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…06f9backed Over	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Over	49c	79.59$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Over	49c	57.14$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5631…bd3abacked Under	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	56	62.5%35 W · 21 L	+6.4wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Under	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d3…3d7abacked Over	52c	46.48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.35	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a74…c3e4backed Over	56c	43.63$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	89	68.5%61 W · 28 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73dd…bc8abacked Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	86	52.3%45 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Over	49c	35.87$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.58	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x852b…9946backed Under	48c	31.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7028…8512backed Over	49c	28.57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x254f…2fb8backed Over	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe74e…90b6backed Over	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf597…f4aebacked Over	55c	27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-3.7wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under	53c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.71	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…03efbacked Over	49c	24.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	74	55.4%41 W · 33 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadd4…3ae9backed Over	50c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f0…67e3backed Over	50c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Magic: O/U 223.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event