NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Magic: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7827b4807c24b662dc31b0c1897a758dcdacbbd71e0a246e6b74d23c2d42db0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 50c | 8,228$4,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.99 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 7,771$3,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,825.27 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 54c | 5,175$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.88 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2e…f422backed Over | 52c | 2,900$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 55c | 1,187$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.06 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 996.4$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 643.38$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.66 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 50c | 640.54$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.27 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…ca3dbacked Over | 50c | 490$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 148.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 224.5this page
- Nets vs. MagicMagic won
- Nets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineNets won
- Nets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Under won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 223.5Under won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-13.5)Nets won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.