TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Giants vs. Diamondbacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Diamondbacksof Giants, Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$909,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$916,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $909,117 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Giants48c689,575$328,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328,156.1138043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Diamondbacks52c157,150$81,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,43211759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Diamondbacks52c145,145$75,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,409.435952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Diamondbacks53c84,000$44,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,68055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Diamondbacks44c58,573$26,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,510.81,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Diamondbacks54c43,184$23,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,052.217156.1%96 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Diamondbacks51c37,514$19,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,358.351,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Diamondbacks53c35,000$18,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,60025453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Diamondbacks53c25,000$13,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,75026949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Diamondbacks52c25,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,0008861.4%54 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Diamondbacks52c18,537$9,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,897.531,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Giants68c18,007$12,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,223.5233845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Diamondbacks53c16,373$8,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,695.421,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Diamondbacks52c14,444$7,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,933.1230255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Diamondbacks53c12,920$6,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,115.645248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Diamondbacks40c11,587$4,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,920.6621847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Diamondbacks53c11,110$5,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,221.78464.3%54 W · 30 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks41c9,390$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,539.749,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Diamondbacks52c8,000$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8406547.7%31 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks54c7,477$4,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,409.52,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Diamondbacks53c7,467$3,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,507.9154941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Diamondbacks52c6,600$3,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1681,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Diamondbacks53c5,751$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.977164.8%46 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Diamondbacks53c5,500$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,59056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Diamondbacks52c4,709$2,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,248.4373352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Diamondbacks54c4,264$2,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,971.9163152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Diamondbacks53c4,134$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.122948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Diamondbacks53c4,108$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.0273149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe829…f91cbacked Diamondbacks54c3,712$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.892650%13 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x811e…8733backed Diamondbacks32c3,083$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,098.491861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+43%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Diamondbacks53c2,987$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.891,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Giants47c2,680$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.69135.2%32 W · 59 L-12.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Giants62c2,602$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.5225551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Diamondbacks47c2,549$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.8795930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Giants46c2,446$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.3278445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbc…a89cbacked Diamondbacks21c2,161$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.623836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Diamondbacks54c2,047$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.5620747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked Diamondbacks39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2206949.3%34 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Diamondbacks47c1,733$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.244,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Diamondbacks59c1,576$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.9533137.5%124 W · 207 L-17.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Diamondbacks53c1,532$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.041,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Diamondbacks52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x56bb…8e6bbacked Diamondbacks53c1,493$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.764047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Diamondbacks42c1,296$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.086,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa468…816ebacked Diamondbacks31c1,291$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.239349.5%46 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa983…46a3backed Giants78c1,283$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011345.1%51 W · 62 L-16.4wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcec6…47c1backed Giants78c1,281$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006440.6%26 W · 38 L-10.5wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-30.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xacad…bceabacked Giants48c1,104$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.781947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Diamondbacks60c1,101$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.3515650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Giants40c1,101$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.3531248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Diamondbacks53c1,057$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.7920748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Giants47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47041643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Diamondbacks54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Giants46c999.97$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3219…4f05backed Giants46c921$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.663053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Diamondbacks54c896.3$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.32626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Giants55c866$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.568769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Giants47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40065248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ad…9d38backed Giants47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017045.3%77 W · 93 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Giants47c850.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.971,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Diamondbacks54c789.95$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.3816551.5%85 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Diamondbacks54c735.36$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.4279740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52c…ef80backed Giants30c732$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.62737%10 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Giants47c700$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3293,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fce…28f8backed Giants49c694.16$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.149757.7%56 W · 41 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Diamondbacks54c627.93$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.8514055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Diamondbacks55c619.82$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.2911544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Giants37c600$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22125416.1%41 W · 213 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Diamondbacks53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28242452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Diamondbacks54c592$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.3226650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Diamondbacks17c588.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.241,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd4…b11dbacked Giants47c582.74$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Giants52c552.95$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.4496133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72b7…e360backed Giants39c538.19$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.086152.5%32 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Giants46c501.37$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.371,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Giants47c474.47$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22357744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Giants46c440$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.41,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Giants47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Giants25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002825%7 W · 21 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Diamondbacks53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1881,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda4f…e43bbacked Giants52c381.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e4e…437cbacked Diamondbacks53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.361586.7%13 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick56cpaid+65.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Giants46c364.77$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3966645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04c5…c199backed Giants48c360$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Giants47c338.57$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.131,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Diamondbacks73c326$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.851151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Diamondbacks54c316.3$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.580955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Diamondbacks34c306.65$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.391,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked Giants66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001866.7%12 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Diamondbacks53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14166751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5693…71fdbacked Diamondbacks56c295.46$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1306544.6%29 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Diamondbacks52c286.6$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7776456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Diamondbacks53c245.28$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2830844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks37c235.81$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.951,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Giants60c234.36$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14047348.8%231 W · 242 L-22.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Diamondbacks63c233$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5749450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Giants46c219.57$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10161346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5995…9089backed Diamondbacks56c211$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Giants42c190.48$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Diamondbacks54c185$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.11,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.