Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-09-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379efbec4105e1cd86e3b23d622b5e4fe3e081cf52e7fa394706f46f712fa3a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 73c | 9,611$7,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.97 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 27c | 9,611$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,425$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 11c | 1,020$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 72c | 957.99$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 875.37$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.17 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 74c | 811$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.86 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 54c | 573.67$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.24 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…c947backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 75c | 488$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 402.41$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 27c | 368.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 46c | 322.06$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.48 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked No | 75c | 304.72$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 25c | 168$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 45c | 154.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…a950backed Yes | 46c | 153.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 65c | 149.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 143.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…2400backed Yes | 55c | 127.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…f629backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 25c | 75.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No | 47c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed Yes | 27c | 69.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…04babacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 65.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 24c | 65.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 68c | 63.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…10b6backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 70c | 38.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…a4d3backed Yes | 55c | 36.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-09-14?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.