Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b31ecf5cbfc8bde3f65195bfb05cfda08025cd21c4d5ae293741a4e62dd91cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Yes | 45c | 43,492$19,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,933.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 55c | 40,072$22,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,039.37 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 14c | 9,758$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.6 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 1,141$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 44c | 1,010$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.4 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 56c | 727.33$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.04 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 56c | 665.58$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.72 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 55c | 661.11$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.61 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 58c | 623.43$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.75 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 54c | 539.33$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.24 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 537.25$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 387$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 55c | 350$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 55c | 322.79$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.47 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 46c | 304.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.35 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 17c | 297.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 65c | 276.1$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.7 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 35c | 274.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 54c | 265.31$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…c48dbacked Yes | 28c | 201.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 55c | 199.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 37c | 166.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 73c | 126.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 55c | 109.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Yes | 45c | 100.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c6…f769backed Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…844cbacked No | 27c | 86.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked No | 58c | 83.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed No | 75c | 82.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 55c | 71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 64c | 68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 56c | 59.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…19b3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 45c | 44.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…2b82backed Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…32a7backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…a1dbbacked Yes | 66c | 32.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 34c | 32.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 71c | 32.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 47c | 25.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-14?this page
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-09-14?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.