TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: SK Gaming vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fnaticof SK Gaming, Fnatic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$788,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$929,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $788,450 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked SK Gaming26c57,594$15,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,077.11,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea2e…1e57backed SK Gaming0c56,957$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5615757.3%90 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Fnatic53c25,000$13,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,75064155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c7…f0a7backed SK Gaming49c21,817$10,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,678.0913061.5%80 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed SK Gaming30c20,122$6,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,080.3732150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed SK Gaming23c20,000$4,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,598.615148.3%73 W · 78 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf23c…9f81backed Fnatic52c17,251$9,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,244.4615062%93 W · 57 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed SK Gaming47c16,557$7,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,745.539144%40 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed SK Gaming36c15,827$5,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,688.981,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b43…e244backed SK Gaming0c15,615$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8210254.9%56 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0765…9e3fbacked SK Gaming0c14,241$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.318659.3%51 W · 35 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3936…6e40backed SK Gaming2c12,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34a1…0c87backed SK Gaming2c12,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847f…459ebacked SK Gaming47c9,850$4,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,629.482236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Fnatic56c9,162$5,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,031.491,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Fnatic53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,76091854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked Fnatic49c8,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.9914342%60 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Fnatic72c7,356$5,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.321,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed SK Gaming43c7,148$3,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,078.1981143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Fnatic53c7,041$3,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,283.511,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked SK Gaming49c6,800$3,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,331.9932555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked SK Gaming41c6,750$2,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,764.396636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked SK Gaming11c6,325$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69124326.7%65 W · 178 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Fnatic50c6,063$3,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,034.211,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Fnatic57c6,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,58089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Fnatic50c5,730$2,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,854.221,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Fnatic58c5,626$3,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.6435058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Fnatic73c5,572$4,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.261,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed SK Gaming15c5,565$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.2135448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7528…6539backed SK Gaming2c5,510$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed SK Gaming45c5,419$2,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.482,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed SK Gaming50c5,395$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.4260855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Fnatic47c5,300$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.9817444.8%78 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked SK Gaming1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked SK Gaming47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.9930945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed SK Gaming40c4,388$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.6885836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Fnatic55c4,263$2,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,916.3751348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked SK Gaming7c4,259$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.9540637.7%153 W · 253 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed SK Gaming18c4,029$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.812,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Fnatic50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00028642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2364…18f2backed SK Gaming41c3,998$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.789068.9%62 W · 28 L+13.7wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+33.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x865c…4079backed SK Gaming23c3,948$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.687529.3%22 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked SK Gaming20c3,741$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.721,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed Fnatic49c3,501$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.2730546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d9…753abacked SK Gaming36c3,500$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2614337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed SK Gaming39c3,183$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.11,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked Fnatic51c3,137$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.2517852.8%94 W · 84 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked SK Gaming16c3,116$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd0e6…4c4ebacked SK Gaming3c3,100$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90603.3%2 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x270c…f66fbacked SK Gaming3c3,100$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90660%0 W · 66 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0160…c757backed SK Gaming3c3,100$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%0 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e8…9490backed SK Gaming3c3,100$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90430%0 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Fnatic54c2,930$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.241,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed SK Gaming23c2,847$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.2564247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x880d…50b8backed Fnatic51c2,825$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.391241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Fnatic50c2,787$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.0328948.1%139 W · 150 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Fnatic54c2,700$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.971,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed Fnatic59c2,674$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.921861%133 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Fnatic71c2,553$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.3530357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Fnatic65c2,529$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.9766559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Fnatic63c2,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.0553355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cf…0fdabacked SK Gaming10c2,408$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0370%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked SK Gaming47c2,403$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.5587844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked SK Gaming50c2,389$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.3823152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb6…8b20backed SK Gaming20c2,230$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.96714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed SK Gaming49c2,218$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08026661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed SK Gaming7c2,176$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4112128.9%35 W · 86 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Fnatic62c2,125$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.5385442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed SK Gaming48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Fnatic50c2,061$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.520146.8%94 W · 107 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed SK Gaming50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd403…a817backed SK Gaming2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40355.7%2 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed SK Gaming47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9401,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d76…1298backed SK Gaming27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5404845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed Fnatic59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.9931953%169 W · 150 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35b7…fbcfbacked Fnatic78c2,000$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.0827367%183 W · 90 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Fnatic56c2,000$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.9989050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Fnatic59c1,900$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7797753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Fnatic77c1,875$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.051,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Fnatic53c1,842$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.6646258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x369f…1706backed Fnatic55c1,803$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.425046%23 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed SK Gaming51c1,773$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Fnatic77c1,772$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.511,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked SK Gaming50c1,725$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.6963944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Fnatic52c1,723$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.9115147%71 W · 80 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Fnatic50c1,614$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.181,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Fnatic52c1,562$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.991,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed SK Gaming43c1,548$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.51,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1680…490dbacked SK Gaming44c1,489$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6564660.9%28 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed Fnatic57c1,404$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.5167057.5%385 W · 285 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked SK Gaming33c1,402$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.715056%28 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d2…4850backed SK Gaming23c1,400$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.7517448.3%84 W · 90 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked SK Gaming36c1,311$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.8695847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd29b…96adbacked Fnatic80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25016366.3%108 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Fnatic50c1,202$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.4960354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed SK Gaming49c1,200$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58441343.6%180 W · 233 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Fnatic57c1,200$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51628448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed SK Gaming14c1,176$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17026635%93 W · 173 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fnatic55c1,154$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.32,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0805…1d14backed Fnatic68c1,117$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.137252.2%194 W · 178 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.