TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$282,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,149 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Over54c160,800$86,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,183.7350153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Under46c159,663$73,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,019.916943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under46c28,895$13,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,291.992054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over55c23,419$12,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,629.881,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c20,584$9,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,478.5665050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over55c14,578$7,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,628.881,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Over56c11,897$6,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,234.6451756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over54c11,626$6,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,335.081,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under44c8,215$3,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,614.641149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over54c7,063$3,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,248.9559549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Under44c5,775$2,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,548.693461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Under46c5,237$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.164047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3501,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Over55c2,433$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.6319053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c2,409$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.915,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Under46c2,104$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.5611451.8%59 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over55c2,064$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.875049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Over55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9005455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Over50c1,604$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.9286548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under47c1,596$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75049158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under46c1,564$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.2811256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under46c1,446$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.7347350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over54c1,442$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.421,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x047c…3ce4backed Over54c1,351$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.265160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under46c1,302$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.718553.5%99 W · 86 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over35c1,267$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.92,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Under50c1,224$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6125350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x995e…13aebacked Under45c1,137$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.542729.6%8 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-45%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46061947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Over54c972.4$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.31931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under47c964.36$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9939948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over55c963.63$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.631,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Under45c889.64$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.347343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under49c790.92$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.722,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under46c761$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.061,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7abf…8dd3backed Over56c707.79$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.976152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under51c686.98$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.3627249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Over48c588.23$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.8810157.4%58 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Under51c588$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8830844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22585952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under41c491.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.649250%46 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Under52c485.6$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.513545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Under47c469.58$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.718553%98 W · 87 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under45c447.22$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.141,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under45c395.4$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9340341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over54c327.77$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.166,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Under46c309.63$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.431637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed Under47c309$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.233839.5%15 W · 23 L-5.9wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over56c308.91$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9228154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x406d…5298backed Over69c286.23$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.01650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over56c286.1$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.881,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ac4…a601backed Over51c285.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.885341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under46c246.33$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.512,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over16c236.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.172,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Over49c203.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.827146.5%33 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over56c190.74$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.931,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8847…0a81backed Over56c175.58$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.892445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24f…7c58backed Over18c175.37$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9913439.6%53 W · 81 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Under45c171.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.361,16749%572 W · 595 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2430…4527backed Under43c149.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.54057.5%23 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under45c142.77$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2561352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f5…8314backed Under50c142.59$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.37252.8%38 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x610f…f6c3backed Under45c128.41$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.241020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-51.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under46c115.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5867849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over55c114.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7546557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Under45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3548150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Under45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3511352.2%59 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Under46c105.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3822450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under46c101.75$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0230750.2%154 W · 153 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457441.9%31 W · 43 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4554146.8%253 W · 288 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x723d…05d7backed Over55c96.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.182568%17 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over56c95.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.961,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over56c95.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9694648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over56c95.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9639351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over56c95.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9641847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over56c95.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.961,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over56c95.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9634452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Over56c95.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9612656.3%71 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Over56c95.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9613343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Over49c94.44$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4555464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over56c93.02$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9333547.5%159 W · 176 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cdaebacked Over56c90.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.671752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7192…7000backed Over54c90.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.425756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Over57c89.85$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6312449.2%61 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f04…4e5fbacked Under44c89.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.632161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d55…e297backed Over55c88.91$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d9…34b4backed Over54c88.69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.82450%12 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed Over55c88.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.82759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Over56c86.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2512750.4%64 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeda…6595backed Under45c85.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.684667.4%31 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Under45c83.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7148651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Over58c83.79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0513361.7%82 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under51c83.77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.327248.5%132 W · 140 L-1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over55c79.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.541,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under76c78.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.121,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1edb…a60bbacked Over54c75.63$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.793844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Under45c75.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8510449%51 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under45c71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0328352.3%148 W · 135 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.