MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cfdc4e36439d9a030aacf7670e828956377168a9b103fc1c52fa775fcbd5327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Cleveland Guardians, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 463.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 388.72$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.39 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 192.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 178.75$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 171.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 137.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 114.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 98.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…7c7bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 93.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 75.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 17c | 67.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 63.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 57.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 56.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 50.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 50.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 49.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 45.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 41.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 37.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 35.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 29.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +317.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…64a7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 15.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.