NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bbdfd09ad1be6edd271b974fb82b5b82d5f034695863f29946d145516f43aac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Heat, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,431 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59a0…9a09backed Lakers | 49c | 35,122$17,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,912.3 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Heat | 51c | 23,000$11,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,730 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Heat | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,120 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers | 50c | 11,798$5,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,924.26 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Heat | 44c | 8,559$3,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,765.95 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 56c | 6,502$3,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,890.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Lakers | 58c | 5,757$3,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420.88 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 54c | 5,023$2,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Heat | 44c | 3,819$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.36 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Heat | 44c | 3,792$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.44 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Heat | 46c | 3,580$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.46 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat | 44c | 3,067$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.48 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Heat | 50c | 2,668$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.85 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Heat | 45c | 2,538$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.21 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…0999backed Heat | 44c | 2,181$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.35 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Lakers | 56c | 1,665$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.46 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers | 55c | 1,485$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.39 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…bca4backed Lakers | 59c | 1,457$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 48c | 1,422$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Heat | 51c | 1,378$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Heat | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…a0d9backed Heat | 51c | 1,128$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.23 | 274 | 55.5%152 W · 122 L | +15.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Heat | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Lakers | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…8c92backed Lakers | 59c | 968.24$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Lakers | 49c | 862.98$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.12 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Heat | 44c | 820$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…77f3backed Lakers | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lakers | 49c | 624.43$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.31 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 49c | 610.26$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.19 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 47c | 592.12$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.61 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Lakers | 56c | 540$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Heat | 41c | 509.5$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.89 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Lakers | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Heat | 42c | 499.66$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.25 | 548 | 53.8%295 W · 253 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca40…83f6backed Heat | 44c | 468$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Heat | 53c | 460$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.33 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Lakers | 26c | 449$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.26 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Lakers | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Lakers | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…4857backed Heat | 51c | 365.11$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 50c | 364.48$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lakers | 49c | 314.58$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.11 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Heat | 53c | 313.63$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.22 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Heat | 45c | 306.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 187 | 44.4%83 W · 104 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Heat | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 47c | 266.32$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Heat | 53c | 252.33$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Heat | 46c | 238.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…16dfbacked Heat | 52c | 225.57$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 304 | 53.3%162 W · 142 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Lakers | 49c | 204.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Heat | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Lakers | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Heat | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Lakers | 45c | 180.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Heat | 45c | 171.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Heat | 52c | 169.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 576 | 50%288 W · 288 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Heat | 44c | 167.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Heat | 57c | 166.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…9908backed Heat | 51c | 161$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Heat | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Heat | 52c | 148$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Lakers | 50c | 144.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Heat | 53c | 124.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…8fe6backed Lakers | 51c | 106.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…25eabacked Lakers | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Lakers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Heat | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…2869backed Lakers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Heat | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…18d6backed Heat | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Lakers | 37c | 90.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…c3b9backed Heat | 52c | 85.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Lakers | 59c | 85.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Lakers | 50c | 80.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 206 | 50%103 W · 103 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Heat | 50c | 69.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Heat | 52c | 68.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Lakers | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…664cbacked Lakers | 59c | 57.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat | 43c | 56.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Heat | 51c | 55.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Heat | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Heat | 65c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Lakers | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Lakers | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Lakers | 48c | 45.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Lakers | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…8506backed Heat | 44c | 43.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Heat | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Heat | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Heat | 52c | 38.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Lakers | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ec…c4f2backed Heat | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Lakers | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Lakers | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…9885backed Lakers | 50c | 37.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…0031backed Heat | 52c | 36.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 306 | 54.6%167 W · 139 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Heat | 49c | 33.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Heat | 46c | 31.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Lakers vs. HeatLakers won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.