TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,477 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f8a…9506backed Heat56c1,433$800 inWon+$633.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers44c1,039$457 inLost-$457.125,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…ccccbacked Heat51c563$287 inWon+$275.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc45a…1f80backed Heat51c392$200 inWon+$192.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2355…c79dbacked Heat51c362$185 inWon+$177.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fc…4238backed Heat51c358$183 inWon+$175.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…157ebacked Heat51c335$171 inWon+$164.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1646…5e23backed Lakers49c321$157 inLost-$157.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5d…2754backed Lakers49c316$155 inLost-$154.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…ac40backed Lakers49c277$136 inLost-$135.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdc5…8742backed Lakers49c276$135 inLost-$135.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3503…323cbacked Heat51c274$140 inWon+$134.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60c4…fc25backed Heat51c262$134 inWon+$128.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f9…d1cabacked Lakers49c232$114 inLost-$113.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a1…54ecbacked Lakers49c231$113 inLost-$113.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14b1…b447backed Heat51c229$117 inWon+$112.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c42…33bebacked Lakers49c219$107 inLost-$107.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3083…b006backed Heat51c217$111 inWon+$106.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59db…cde5backed Lakers49c211$103 inLost-$103.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc075…bd46backed Lakers49c204$100 inLost-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b26…06c5backed Lakers49c196$96 inLost-$96.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f59…1d33backed Lakers49c178$87 inLost-$87.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83f…3473backed Lakers49c167$82 inLost-$81.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e8…cf6fbacked Lakers49c164$80 inLost-$80.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lakers44c159$70 inLost-$69.962,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Lakers45c56$25 inLost-$25.262049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Lakers45c44$20 inLost-$19.827345.1%123 W · 150 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Lakers45c44$20 inLost-$19.832947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Lakers45c44$20 inLost-$19.832747.4%155 W · 172 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Lakers46c30$14 inLost-$13.890357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60e3…c767backed Heat59c28.4$17 inWon+$11.7611553%61 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.