TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 242.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$166,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,278 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Under50c40,210$20,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,105.091,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over48c29,446$14,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,267.414,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…c2a4backed Under54c28,516$15,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,398.684337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over50c14,632$7,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,362.371,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c10,801$5,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,554.929,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under53c7,078$3,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,751.341,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over51c6,864$3,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,363.341,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over50c6,582$3,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.74,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7001,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c3,169$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.152,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5004042.5%17 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Over47c1,890$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.8518151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Under54c1,850$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.985072%36 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Under51c1,776$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90024247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under50c1,556$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.152,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Over46c1,315$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.228748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Over46c1,311$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.9422143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Over46c1,300$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70271547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcb8…2f90backed Under50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under52c1,145$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.433,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over48c1,025$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.376,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Over46c1,006$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.2447354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017246.5%80 W · 92 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51053951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Under51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51021142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a7…87b6backed Under50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005050%25 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under49c726.56$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.012,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Over46c652.17$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1727746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c619.07$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.918,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Over46c617.17$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.2717850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over45c539$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.451,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Under50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25065349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Under49c496.04$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.0612950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under52c454.13$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.63,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Under51c421.18$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.822154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Over46c416.54$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.9313554.1%73 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed Under49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027745.8%127 W · 150 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20061740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed Over45c299.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9910645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed Over52c265.13$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.624645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over45c258.88$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.3852552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under49c253.2$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4849249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under35c236.64$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.991,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under54c220$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.824955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over65c215.38$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3865872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10015753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Under50c199.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Under51c195.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009546.3%44 W · 51 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under50c191.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.772,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Under53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031954.5%174 W · 145 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over49c167.02$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4595047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over46c157$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.782,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under46c136.47$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1151438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cc…3132backed Under50c133$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.511229.5%33 W · 79 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over45c132$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.045,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f5…c391backed Over49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.45560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5459650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5495548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5138464.3%247 W · 137 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5155533.5%186 W · 369 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd815…1cdebacked Under51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508456%47 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under52c95.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.912,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Over47c92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9258450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x729c…2b1ebacked Under55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026354%142 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under14c90.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7320837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under53c82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.662,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed Over47c65.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.985036%18 W · 32 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Over52c65.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.531346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over50c58.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.271,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over46c57.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8596956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Under51c57.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1910764.5%69 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4453…b560backed Under35c53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb11f…f01cbacked Over50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over48c48.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2223651.3%121 W · 115 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Over51c47.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0945544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under51c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4434247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Under50c43.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5118459.2%109 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed Under55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.687049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3590…68f1backed Under51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012548%60 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over64c37.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.53,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under40c34.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.862,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6150351.5%259 W · 244 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over51c32.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.713,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under49c29.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.422,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Over46c28.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.252437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbde2…3fcfbacked Under51c28.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.388956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2830…c47bbacked Under55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under51c25.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0421852.8%115 W · 103 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef1…352ebacked Under51c24.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.29540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4884…f519backed Over50c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127642.1%32 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over48c21.68$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2291746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under50c21.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.842153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under49c20.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.361,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf17e…c12ebacked Over49c20.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.554860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018242.9%78 W · 104 L-10.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.