NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb385cb5cd387f232dfcac9d2ed4cdee7aa2dcacd56904e1d34fbff80354816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Heat, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,246 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7754…9709backed Lakers | 62c | 9,843$6,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,774.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Heat | 24c | 3,189$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.41 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 54c | 2,804$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Heat | 47c | 2,526$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.27 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 51c | 2,118$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Lakers | 60c | 1,733$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.94 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b0…a9e6backed Heat | 47c | 1,618$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.29 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…5e69backed Lakers | 59c | 1,300$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…7e7fbacked Heat | 45c | 1,082$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.96 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Lakers | 55c | 1,082$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.96 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 47c | 471.42$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Heat | 44c | 422.35$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.37 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 38c | 395.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat | 42c | 333.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.13 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Heat | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 44c | 268.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Lakers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers | 61c | 229.55$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Heat | 40c | 215$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Heat | 45c | 212.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Heat | 48c | 194.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Lakers | 55c | 182.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lakers | 48c | 175.26$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Heat | 41c | 157.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Lakers | 55c | 145.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat | 39c | 142.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed Heat | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Lakers | 61c | 124.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Lakers | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Heat | 52c | 107$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Heat | 62c | 101$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Lakers | 55c | 99.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…1f08backed Lakers | 53c | 94.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Lakers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Lakers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Lakers | 60c | 77.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…c4f1backed Lakers | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Heat | 48c | 65.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Lakers | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Heat | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Lakers | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Lakers | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Heat | 49c | 53.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Heat | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Heat | 40c | 44.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Heat | 45c | 43.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Heat | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Heat | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Heat | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Heat | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed Heat | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…3970backed Lakers | 62c | 39.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Lakers | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 373 | 44.2%165 W · 208 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Lakers | 62c | 32.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Lakers | 44c | 27.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Lakers | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lakers | 56c | 24.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Lakers vs. HeatLakers won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.