NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3570f8426a2544f3e4e95529ca871f280a43219586d284cc0e520c5fda71644c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Heat, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,825 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 46c | 13,131$6,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,098.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat | 50c | 10,950$5,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,516.84 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…2a1bbacked Lakers | 50c | 7,212$3,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,593.76 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 53c | 6,839$3,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,609.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…8b9bbacked Lakers | 51c | 5,882$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebf…3b02backed Heat | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Heat | 54c | 4,907$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.62 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 54c | 4,205$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.45 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Lakers | 44c | 4,140$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,311.33 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 50c | 3,485$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.79 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Heat | 53c | 3,372$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.14 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Heat | 56c | 3,327$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.84 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc920…7914backed Lakers | 49c | 3,062$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.92 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 53c | 3,057$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.45 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…ef8dbacked Lakers | 50c | 2,826$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…e7c0backed Lakers | 50c | 2,600$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Lakers | 51c | 2,510$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.8 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 46c | 2,510$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Lakers | 50c | 2,342$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4780…60e2backed Heat | 51c | 2,338$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdee…c456backed Heat | 51c | 2,336$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…9bdabacked Heat | 54c | 2,278$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.25 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f3…d22cbacked Lakers | 49c | 2,254$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Lakers | 47c | 2,110$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.3 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Heat | 50c | 2,100$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.98 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacb…db6ebacked Lakers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…29fbbacked Heat | 51c | 1,925$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae39…5301backed Lakers | 49c | 1,899$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…14d5backed Lakers | 49c | 1,802$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…9506backed Heat | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0a6fbacked Heat | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Lakers | 49c | 1,540$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.6 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Heat | 54c | 1,500$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f8…12f7backed Lakers | 41c | 1,463$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7eeebacked Heat | 52c | 1,423$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b97…0d79backed Lakers | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Lakers | 48c | 1,364$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.34 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Heat | 52c | 1,354$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.03 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2178…2b22backed Heat | 51c | 1,341$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat | 59c | 1,044$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.14 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…cc0cbacked Heat | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Heat | 55c | 909$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.99 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Heat | 54c | 863.43$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…4cc6backed Heat | 61c | 766.02$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Lakers | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…8acebacked Lakers | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.82 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Lakers | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Heat | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lakers | 46c | 467$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.1 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Heat | 54c | 455.2$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.92 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…a88dbacked Heat | 61c | 415.99$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.75 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Lakers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Lakers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Lakers | 47c | 369.01$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Lakers | 37c | 353$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.39 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Lakers | 48c | 337.53$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…ba61backed Heat | 55c | 315.25$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…d17abacked Heat | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Heat | 53c | 280.27$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Lakers | 44c | 252.02$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.13 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 52c | 235.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Lakers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Heat | 52c | 224.9$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Lakers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Lakers | 45c | 211.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Heat | 56c | 207.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Heat | 54c | 205.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…b812backed Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Lakers | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Heat | 52c | 190.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 51c | 175.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Heat | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Lakers | 41c | 160.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.72 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Lakers | 41c | 151.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Lakers | 42c | 149.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.49 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb776…d112backed Lakers | 49c | 149$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Lakers | 49c | 140.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…13c3backed Lakers | 49c | 135$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9218…0c29backed Heat | 51c | 128$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Lakers | 47c | 127.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Lakers | 47c | 127.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3569…f4eabacked Heat | 51c | 122$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Heat | 53c | 116.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Heat | 51c | 115.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Heat | 61c | 110.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Heat | 58c | 109$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Lakers | 49c | 103.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140b…27dabacked Lakers | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Heat | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Heat | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Lakers | 40c | 93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb6…afdbbacked Heat | 61c | 85.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b6…0da7backed Lakers | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Heat | 62c | 80.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Heat | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Lakers | 47c | 77.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Heat | 53c | 73.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…50b3backed Lakers | 39c | 73.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Heat | 60c | 71.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…1189backed Lakers | 40c | 66.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Lakers vs. HeatLakers won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.