TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,337 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under49c1,122$550 inLost-$55056043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3817…7d10backed Over51c1,102$562 inWon+$540.24654.3%25 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24fe…2b1fbacked Over52c371$193 inWon+$178.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0fc…9ceabacked Over52c361$188 inWon+$173.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc911…4d11backed Over52c359$187 inWon+$172.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91be…dbd5backed Over52c346$180 inWon+$166.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaca…f09abacked Over52c344$179 inWon+$165.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff40…c553backed Under48c331$159 inLost-$158.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec79…b56abacked Under48c300$144 inLost-$144250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1af…76aebacked Under48c295$142 inLost-$141.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x107e…e987backed Over52c293$152 inWon+$140.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35a2…a620backed Under48c287$138 inLost-$137.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb917…e6f2backed Under48c284$136 inLost-$136.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd9f…a695backed Over52c259$135 inWon+$124.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8891…71f8backed Under48c253$121 inLost-$121.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x312d…1a65backed Over52c242$126 inWon+$116.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x809a…ec60backed Under48c241$116 inLost-$115.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…5993backed Under48c221$106 inLost-$106.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…5e85backed Over52c207$108 inWon+$99.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf5…f6d1backed Under48c206$99 inLost-$98.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1698…8844backed Under48c187$90 inLost-$89.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x364f…f661backed Under48c177$85 inLost-$84.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over51c20$10 inWon+$9.887049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.