TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Heat: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Lakers, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,629 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x691f…5e69backed Heat73c520$380 inWon+$140.46355.6%35 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat70c330.03$230 inWon+$99.735,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x741f…6533backed Heat58c324$188 inWon+$136.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Lakers22c320$70 inLost-$70.426336.5%96 W · 167 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…71d4backed Heat58c301$175 inWon+$126.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lakers26c298.11$78 inLost-$78.491,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a66…a3acbacked Heat58c287$166 inWon+$120.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6894…423cbacked Heat58c286$166 inWon+$120.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…8aa5backed Heat58c275$160 inWon+$115.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699e…b4f5backed Heat58c265$154 inWon+$111.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d49…2e1dbacked Lakers42c226$95 inLost-$94.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef1…c8fabacked Lakers42c214$90 inLost-$89.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689b…dc54backed Lakers42c214$90 inLost-$89.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1746…34aabacked Heat58c204$118 inWon+$85.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c8…68d7backed Lakers35c200$70 inLost-$703951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96e5…4844backed Lakers42c200$84 inLost-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda67…bff2backed Lakers42c191$80 inLost-$80.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0503…a390backed Lakers42c188$79 inLost-$78.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x138a…6a8ebacked Lakers42c183$77 inLost-$76.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x085a…55aabacked Heat58c174$101 inWon+$73.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5147…ff48backed Lakers42c160$67 inLost-$67.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52e1…07c4backed Lakers42c153$64 inLost-$64.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Lakers38c133.13$50 inLost-$5036248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b1…4828backed Lakers42c132$55 inLost-$55.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe686…832bbacked Lakers42c131$55 inLost-$55.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc492…d0a8backed Lakers42c124$52 inLost-$52.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae0…8f73backed Heat77c109.09$84 inWon+$25.093243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb11f…f01cbacked Lakers28c89.3$25 inLost-$253647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat65c82.97$54 inWon+$29.041,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lakers25c53.19$13 inLost-$13.191,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Heat72c50.11$36 inWon+$14.0337845%170 W · 208 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Heat73c32$23 inWon+$8.6437848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Heat61c25.66$16 inWon+$1088057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Heat60c24.69$15 inWon+$9.8893145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.