NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c264dadb01538772beb2131225a06080c3db4ae7d431d67f9f478edd734db01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Heat, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,111,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,111,408 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Heat | 50c | 433,673$216,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216,836.33 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lakers | 50c | 228,330$114,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114,164.87 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Lakers | 50c | 151,785$75,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,202.79 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Heat | 57c | 105,300$60,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,020.99 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Lakers | 50c | 99,981$49,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,990.44 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…f73cbacked Lakers | 43c | 69,443$29,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,582.7 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Heat | 50c | 63,825$32,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,114.53 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Lakers | 51c | 40,000$20,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,600 | 483 | 43.7%211 W · 272 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…88b4backed Lakers | 43c | 31,917$13,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,192.75 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Heat | 49c | 31,427$15,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,399.22 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379d…cf4abacked Heat | 0c | 26,950$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Heat | 52c | 23,834$12,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,293.52 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Lakers | 48c | 23,298$11,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,121.37 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 47c | 23,225$10,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,349.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Lakers | 48c | 20,621$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,620.75 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers | 48c | 17,784$8,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,225.49 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers | 49c | 17,480$8,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,856.91 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Heat | 52c | 15,613$8,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,089.4 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Lakers | 50c | 14,650$7,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,325 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Heat | 52c | 10,925$5,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,710.21 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Heat | 51c | 10,412$5,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,349.29 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…47e7backed Lakers | 51c | 10,080$5,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,939.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Heat | 57c | 9,630$5,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,489.34 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Heat | 54c | 9,338$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lakers | 50c | 8,500$4,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…eed7backed Lakers | 48c | 8,343$4,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,338.36 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Lakers | 43c | 8,055$3,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,591.33 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Heat | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Heat | 51c | 6,863$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f7e5backed Lakers | 50c | 6,798$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,397.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lakers | 49c | 6,766$3,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,458.07 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Lakers | 50c | 6,638$3,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,327.96 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 52c | 6,548$3,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,427.25 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lakers | 48c | 6,246$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,243.51 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers | 51c | 6,234$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,054.9 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Lakers | 51c | 5,853$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.73 | 265 | 44.9%119 W · 146 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Heat | 56c | 5,805$3,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,272.36 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebf…3b02backed Lakers | 51c | 5,533$2,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…f708backed Lakers | 45c | 5,270$2,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,902.77 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 45c | 5,250$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Heat | 50c | 5,036$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.87 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.97 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x492e…4da1backed Heat | 46c | 4,855$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Lakers | 48c | 4,500$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.5 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Heat | 50c | 4,428$2,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,227 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Heat | 49c | 4,322$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.2 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…b634backed Heat | 49c | 4,046$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Lakers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Heat | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…f942backed Heat | 46c | 3,877$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…8f4cbacked Heat | 46c | 3,630$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Heat | 52c | 3,396$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.78 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Lakers | 48c | 3,377$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.04 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc24…caa1backed Heat | 47c | 3,144$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…ddcabacked Lakers | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf67a…3ca0backed Heat | 46c | 2,946$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 52c | 2,657$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.44 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Lakers | 48c | 2,573$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.13 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032c…9c0ebacked Lakers | 53c | 2,515$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 43c | 2,412$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…3c2fbacked Lakers | 53c | 2,255$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…3346backed Heat | 47c | 2,216$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…5426backed Lakers | 54c | 2,168$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472d…0b80backed Lakers | 54c | 2,144$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…b033backed Lakers | 53c | 2,131$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2963…9cf9backed Lakers | 54c | 2,088$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…2a1bbacked Lakers | 48c | 2,082$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.85 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Lakers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Lakers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 219 | 43.4%95 W · 124 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Heat | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Lakers | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Lakers | 49c | 1,980$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.73 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Heat | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…fd6ebacked Lakers | 54c | 1,877$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…601bbacked Lakers | 54c | 1,844$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Heat | 56c | 1,777$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.43 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…3aeebacked Lakers | 54c | 1,755$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfe…8dc0backed Lakers | 54c | 1,744$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556a…e942backed Lakers | 53c | 1,744$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77e…8f14backed Lakers | 54c | 1,688$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…365dbacked Heat | 47c | 1,688$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…32cdbacked Heat | 47c | 1,605$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Heat | 49c | 1,500$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Lakers | 49c | 1,500$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.6 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Heat | 49c | 1,422$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Lakers | 47c | 1,258$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.06 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Lakers | 62c | 1,250$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.12 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…a88dbacked Heat | 53c | 1,248$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.6 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Lakers | 49c | 1,237$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.73 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Lakers | 51c | 1,225$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.49 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…e3b4backed Lakers | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…dda7backed Heat | 52c | 1,150$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 242 | 47.1%114 W · 128 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…6f28backed Lakers | 51c | 1,145$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Lakers | 46c | 1,100$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Heat | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Lakers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Lakers | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Heat | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Heat | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat | 51c | 999.74$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.1 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Lakers vs. HeatLakers won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.