TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,900,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,953,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,900,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 668 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf796…3ac5backed No5c18,279$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa838…15cbbacked No5c13,685$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.52160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6def…7096backed No1c12,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100348.8%3 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick2cpaid+889.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c10,750$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ce…e196backed No10c8,468$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x404f…561dbacked No24c8,168$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.591816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No4c8,126$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4296.9%2 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf733…981dbacked No3c6,556$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0e…c0bfbacked No4c6,423$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf798…c718backed No3c5,646$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8301…2c0bbacked No3c4,604$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad0e…269ebacked No5c4,421$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b95…0f86backed No3c4,002$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa894…53dabacked Yes70c3,908$2,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.581838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+216.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00d…2ebfbacked No3c3,889$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x525d…4cadbacked No3c3,879$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No8c3,842$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.181216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes66c3,820$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.863228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e84…3606backed No4c3,744$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f9…62b8backed No4c3,733$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054e…1482backed No3c3,703$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a6…3675backed No3c3,690$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe055…8df9backed No3c3,506$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.88605%3 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…c4bcbacked No3c3,126$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe5…d7b7backed No4c3,019$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x506f…309cbacked No3c2,962$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387b…b9cabacked No3c2,845$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d2b…86ecbacked No3c2,840$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec4…e5a3backed No3c2,822$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…fef0backed No6c2,804$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb163…04a9backed No3c2,731$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe30f…7244backed No3c2,711$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fa7…0ee2backed No4c2,697$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…00afbacked No3c2,658$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd88…2f42backed No4c2,643$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6dd…f407backed No4c2,608$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a8f…a578backed No3c2,594$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2b…8648backed No3c2,587$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7a…b4ccbacked No3c2,575$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd95…1924backed No3c2,561$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7647…a2cdbacked No3c2,554$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5e…f489backed No3c2,541$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc012…12c7backed No4c2,487$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d1…1f06backed No3c2,478$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…eac6backed No4c2,477$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdb…5d13backed No4c2,467$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf169…272cbacked No4c2,462$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd9…3933backed No3c2,454$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c66…27ffbacked No3c2,443$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e70…d7eebacked No3c2,425$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8e…8ed6backed No3c2,396$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e22…0dfabacked No3c2,369$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea4…035ebacked No4c2,366$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef4e…a79abacked No3c2,338$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb93a…11c2backed No3c2,266$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec6…814dbacked No4c2,205$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46a…5e00backed No4c2,190$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fa2…8fafbacked No3c2,163$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5496…bb8ebacked No3c2,144$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec4a…74cabacked No3c2,140$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c5…ae6cbacked No4c2,139$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55e4…5c34backed No4c2,139$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0564…acabbacked No3c2,116$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfc…37a7backed No3c2,101$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf2e…7cc4backed No4c2,075$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x674a…7e28backed No3c2,072$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e81…5cf6backed No3c2,067$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c7…51f4backed No3c2,052$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b87…c5abbacked No4c2,044$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc31…ec80backed No3c2,030$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5f…7ea5backed No3c2,016$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b2…3152backed No3c2,016$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5346…9c11backed No3c2,011$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes50c2,004$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.053138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7953…1199backed No5c1,993$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc3…48fcbacked No4c1,977$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb67b…8cc3backed No4c1,960$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bcb…8428backed No4c1,955$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked No46c1,951$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63d1…d42abacked No4c1,931$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,924$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9129913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x427e…7482backed No3c1,921$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe53…94a1backed No4c1,908$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc19…ae24backed No3c1,907$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a5…bd13backed No5c1,900$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b7…b97ebacked No3c1,892$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429e…d7adbacked No4c1,885$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No4c1,875$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ebc…a8d4backed No4c1,869$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3100…2014backed No5c1,840$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3943…f3c1backed No4c1,832$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed No28c1,816$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.926523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d96…5f05backed No4c1,811$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6981…b4f5backed No3c1,802$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf76…1a22backed No4c1,792$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe978…a454backed No5c1,791$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4a…de4dbacked No4c1,785$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e61backed No4c1,761$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62fa…2c8fbacked No7c1,760$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccaa…c92fbacked No5c1,707$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.