Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2091f233d41008fb13d4cf8f105630947d1bf0f054e42db8a3b2276dad7d4db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 0c | 15,336$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de1…df4ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,405$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e65…82cebacked Yes | 1c | 4,700$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 2c | 2,862$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,725$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa838…15cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,724$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb644…bb6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,588$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,239$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,061$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…8a29backed Yes | 18c | 96.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 25.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.1% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.