Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb15864f9a2bc18136e0a2d4ae3c22919f5162619ee4c62fa7982c01ff726fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60fc…03b0backed Yes | 3c | 6,063$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…1d90backed Yes | 0c | 5,292$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 0c | 4,871$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa838…15cbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,924$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…dfaebacked Yes | 1c | 3,357$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf458…893bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,763$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 8c | 2,081$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.41 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 13c | 1,973$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…82b0backed Yes | 3c | 1,968$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,941$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…2116backed Yes | 2c | 1,685$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b93…7cdfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,642$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c1eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,611$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 9c | 1,523$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,502$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308c…9430backed Yes | 1c | 1,463$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5596…4826backed Yes | 2c | 1,369$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…3957backed Yes | 2c | 1,367$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe788…2c65backed Yes | 1c | 1,363$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e8…7385backed Yes | 2c | 1,276$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…cea5backed Yes | 2c | 1,215$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e81dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,202$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…bb9cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,132$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…39eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,079$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…b82ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,054$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6455…3ba5backed Yes | 3c | 1,026$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,007$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 906.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…d1aebacked Yes | 2c | 891$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…e3fabacked Yes | 1c | 875.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…0e59backed Yes | 2c | 858$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…99b6backed Yes | 2c | 839$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181d…9db6backed Yes | 2c | 838$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…3e45backed Yes | 2c | 812$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d68…9a56backed Yes | 2c | 727$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…c69cbacked Yes | 2c | 685$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…e7bdbacked Yes | 2c | 677$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 661.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 4c | 639.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…66b9backed Yes | 2c | 634$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed Yes | 5c | 629.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…4ea6backed Yes | 8c | 618.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 532$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…f9d9backed Yes | 18c | 495$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 429.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 8c | 341.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 5c | 296.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 14c | 249.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 210.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c21…c52cbacked Yes | 8c | 177.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 106.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab6…c8a8backed Yes | 15c | 67.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 50c | 49.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.1% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.