TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5c21…c52c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Premier League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 55 out of 100; worst CS2 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+229%+$34.77
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+48.8%+$16.4
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.92
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+584.9%+$59.78
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$3.35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$3.4
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$4.8
All 16 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
All 3 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+165.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$15.38
Will FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Côte d'Ivoire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will France win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$29.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Usyk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+203.1%+$33.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+150%+$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$16.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$6.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.