TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1WINof 1WIN, ex-RUBY
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,791 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e5e…7315backed ex-RUBY32c43,112$13,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,795.9922843.9%100 W · 128 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed 1WIN68c30,000$20,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,60017951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked 1WIN68c25,000$16,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,031.4675452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed 1WIN67c6,270$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.122560%15 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed 1WIN67c5,986$4,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.0966551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…6529backed ex-RUBY0c5,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013040%52 W · 78 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed ex-RUBY40c5,000$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.966640.9%27 W · 39 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked 1WIN60c4,276$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.571,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ex-RUBY29c4,099$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.642,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc790…cbd2backed ex-RUBY31c3,210$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.61838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4d…b4cabacked ex-RUBY32c3,060$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.873531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked 1WIN62c3,006$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.445867.2%39 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed ex-RUBY32c2,866$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.281,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked ex-RUBY32c2,786$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.6547836.8%176 W · 302 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed ex-RUBY11c2,641$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.772,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ex-RUBY34c2,364$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.851,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d1…52c5backed ex-RUBY33c2,089$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.534057.5%23 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd679…91a0backed ex-RUBY31c2,048$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.924742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed ex-RUBY33c2,045$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.3516653%88 W · 78 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed 1WIN68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6401,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 1WIN72c1,658$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.33,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked 1WIN74c1,541$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.912,11942.9%909 W · 1,210 L-66.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed 1WIN69c1,519$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.118361.4%51 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed ex-RUBY33c1,463$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.4380542.2%340 W · 465 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked ex-RUBY3c1,380$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4027041.1%111 W · 159 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed ex-RUBY32c1,330$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.633327.9%93 W · 240 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6f…789bbacked ex-RUBY32c1,092$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.542638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked 1WIN73c1,086$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.561,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed 1WIN68c1,032$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3260853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked 1WIN66c996.79$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9144657.2%255 W · 191 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked 1WIN77c944.14$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6436440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked ex-RUBY14c831.47$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3912727.6%35 W · 92 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUBY34c800$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2705,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked 1WIN79c781.17$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.763057.1%360 W · 270 L+40.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed ex-RUBY26c750$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ed…b819backed ex-RUBY36c745.58$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked 1WIN68c735$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.217954.2%97 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde57…666fbacked ex-RUBY31c688$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.285133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed ex-RUBY32c687.5$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 1WIN71c636.14$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.216,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed ex-RUBY32c624.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9838841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed ex-RUBY32c566.37$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.246934.8%24 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked ex-RUBY33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16574633.4%249 W · 497 L-48.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked ex-RUBY36c491.41$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.249837.8%37 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 1WIN68c482.96$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.722,49141.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L-114.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f4a…afd7backed ex-RUBY30c458.63$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8322740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed ex-RUBY34c450.64$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.071,31444.3%582 W · 732 L+47.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-RUBY30c424.47$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.095,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-RUBY22c420$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.953,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8373…7b8ebacked ex-RUBY24c412.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed 1WIN68c378.61$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1661054.6%333 W · 277 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed ex-RUBY36c366.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.416344.2%72 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed 1WIN64c347.48$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0921953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked 1WIN70c325.53$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4541555.4%230 W · 185 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed ex-RUBY32c322$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.042536%9 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed ex-RUBY25c321.75$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6967645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed ex-RUBY31c316.13$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810441.3%43 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed ex-RUBY32c314.34$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.597653.9%41 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcecf…e84fbacked ex-RUBY32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005827.6%16 W · 42 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked ex-RUBY21c310.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.654,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a0…6d52backed 1WIN65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.691127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-51.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86ca…bc47backed ex-RUBY31c303.87$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.26741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed 1WIN68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967856.4%44 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…76fabacked 1WIN68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962552%13 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed28…87cebacked 1WIN59c288.2$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.163461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed ex-RUBY18c269.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.672,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed 1WIN69c259.14$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5940175.1%301 W · 100 L+20.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a13…0512backed ex-RUBY20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked ex-RUBY32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8015945.9%73 W · 86 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c5c…1cf7backed ex-RUBY32c244.6$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.272263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+46.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 1WIN61c242.33$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.512,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4099…b04abacked ex-RUBY42c234.9$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.642245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+97.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x63ef…7d38backed ex-RUBY31c232.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.913154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed ex-RUBY23c231.73$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538925.8%23 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed ex-RUBY32c229.81$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5454339.4%214 W · 329 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d1d…c307backed ex-RUBY32c228.13$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737027.1%19 W · 51 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked 1WIN68c221.4$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8511146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed ex-RUBY32c219.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3198248.3%474 W · 508 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6818…8f14backed ex-RUBY23c213.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018037.8%68 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3116…b30dbacked ex-RUBY36c209.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.335455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUBY41c203.47$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.887,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fb…2b5dbacked ex-RUBY32c193.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed ex-RUBY31c189.43$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7315831%49 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e6…9622backed 1WIN69c182$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4214356.6%81 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed 1WIN68c176.57$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.544552.4%233 W · 212 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 1WIN61c158.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.072,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed ex-RUBY33c155$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.151,06937.8%404 W · 665 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed 1WIN67c154.3$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.926747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked ex-RUBY9c154$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f0c…5ad0backed ex-RUBY14c152.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5110643.4%46 W · 60 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed ex-RUBY32c150.48$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.623234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked ex-RUBY16c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2510541%43 W · 62 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c8…023abacked ex-RUBY33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.58653.5%46 W · 40 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d99…9c27backed ex-RUBY41c143.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6114439.6%57 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed 1WIN70c142.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.722567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85cd…aca5backed ex-RUBY18c142.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.044323.3%10 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked ex-RUBY21c138.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2912525.6%32 W · 93 L-12.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd1d…6f23backed 1WIN59c136.24$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2413759.9%82 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c21…c52cbacked ex-RUBY14c128.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8660%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8961…64cebacked 1WIN68c116.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7924255.8%135 W · 107 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.