Movies · resolved market
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf39f924bd390c7061f64e4b77a0b2016020c839cda9fde84fbdb95c224546dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbc8…7927backed No | 11c | 51,235$5,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 25c | 8,359$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.51 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 4c | 4,200$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 65c | 3,682$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.95 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 3,288$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Yes | 80c | 2,512$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 25c | 2,381$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.44 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 1c | 2,307$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked No | 2c | 2,240$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 2,173$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 8c | 2,005$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…4b29backed No | 1c | 1,862$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 2c | 1,333$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 72c | 1,257$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.05 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 1,137$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…8ed2backed No | 4c | 1,133$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 4c | 809.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed No | 3c | 713.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 6c | 707.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 31c | 700$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 62c | 682.95$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.68 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 18c | 654.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 48c | 607.21$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed No | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked No | 8c | 594.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 56c | 554.37$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.35 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 57c | 513.25$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.05 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed No | 49c | 416.84$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…c782backed No | 3c | 407.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 37c | 400.01$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 311.28$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 294.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 31c | 288.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 24c | 219.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 52c | 199$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…c794backed No | 5c | 198.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 28c | 157.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 12c | 135$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 130.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 72c | 125.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 35c | 124.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 122.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49f…2661backed No | 16c | 95.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed No | 17c | 88.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…2784backed No | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 73.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 65.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 50c | 60.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3d…1a98backed No | 38c | 52.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 40.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked No | 26c | 40.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c21…c52cbacked No | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…b1b8backed Yes | 45c | 25.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…d8d8backed Yes | 75c | 24.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…7a08backed Yes | 79c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?this page
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 49m and 53m?No won
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 53m and 57m?No won
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m?No won
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 49m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.