Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x063212bd0584056ec5d5499001ce19c9b0d00ecb0a44279375fa50a9e377a308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 10c | 3,150$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…070ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,993$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…6e82backed Yes | 24c | 2,738$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 12c | 2,246$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.61 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 1c | 2,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,865$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 17c | 1,699$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.64 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 1,544$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.35 | 234 | 30.3%71 W · 163 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 22c | 1,081$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.82 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 16c | 990.57$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 11c | 830$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 10c | 664.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 532.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 7c | 499.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 12c | 445.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 7c | 377.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 275.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 12c | 207.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…e9c1backed No | 79c | 177$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 9c | 163.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…878abacked Yes | 14c | 159.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 134.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 129.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…e9fabacked Yes | 18c | 105.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 12c | 104.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd874…c8edbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 80c | 77.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…9529backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 63.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 80c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.