Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0949a4f5f70803a9d336c3be23b0f1bcc3095ced6fbe831a91940c9060c1719f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a5d…b8e7backed Yes | 34c | 57,246$19,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,782.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe531…faa5backed No | 66c | 57,246$37,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,782.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f7…c2e2backed Yes | 25c | 51,034$12,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,275.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf490…137bbacked No | 75c | 51,034$38,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,275.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 34c | 9,654$3,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,330.13 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 28c | 8,240$2,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,914.95 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 33c | 4,271$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.67 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 70c | 3,861$2,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 29c | 2,022$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.29 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 66c | 1,865$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.14 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…070ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,638$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 47c | 1,419$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.38 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed No | 64c | 1,305$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 1,173$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.29 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…6e82backed No | 75c | 1,114$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 56c | 1,086$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.6 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…caecbacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…832fbacked No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +217%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80d…e7fbbacked No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0591…780bbacked No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 28c | 952.31$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 33c | 921.11$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.74 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed No | 66c | 900.4$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.99 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 639.58$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.15 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…e9c1backed Yes | 25c | 560$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…c118backed Yes | 43c | 475$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 65c | 422.93$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…2dccbacked Yes | 43c | 420$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…3bd0backed No | 59c | 294.88$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 272.88$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 52c | 257.82$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1452…fdecbacked No | 61c | 256.41$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 70c | 250$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 36c | 247.02$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 34c | 225.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 69c | 205.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 204.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.95 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 29c | 203.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…705bbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 35c | 180.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 158$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 69c | 157.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…5e6abacked Yes | 33c | 140.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 34c | 137.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 111.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 63c | 105.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 38c | 97.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…b006backed No | 59c | 92.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 57c | 86.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f74…c5c6backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…dea1backed Yes | 36c | 71.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…c586backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 71c | 57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 28c | 50.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 41.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…e9fabacked Yes | 46c | 36.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe181…c27cbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…4049backed Yes | 34c | 31.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…8fe0backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a30…22f1backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…19c4backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.