TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$342,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$340,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $342,438 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f5f…9069backed No68c55,964$38,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,908.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x258f…8a4fbacked Yes32c55,964$17,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,908.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…8240backed Yes34c54,312$18,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,466.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e8…d139backed No66c54,312$35,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,466.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe44…555fbacked No61c35,007$21,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,652.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…ff49backed Yes39c35,007$13,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,652.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes46c7,927$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,609.894916.3%8 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No61c6,302$3,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.113525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65ab…070ebacked Yes38c3,936$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.791435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes37c3,733$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.7922433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes37c3,399$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.028636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes5c2,241$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No61c2,053$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.0812049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb381…98f8backed Yes32c2,000$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.3933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+58.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa927…878abacked Yes35c1,875$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes36c1,500$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5362630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5896…37b1backed Yes46c1,300$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8e…7f09backed Yes45c1,300$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf96f…86d8backed Yes46c1,300$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes34c1,234$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.993228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d75…a73abacked No55c1,050$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8121…069bbacked No55c1,050$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2a…832fbacked No55c1,050$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+217%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203522.9%8 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes52c500$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.271822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No53c467.28$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.892152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes39c443.09$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.811421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes47c430.44$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c412.93$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0615148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No67c400.92$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.32532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes43c363.84$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.455145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94a3…67e3backed Yes40c307.67$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.972020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98ee…def0backed No55c250$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes34c205.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed No59c201.47$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.61233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes34c176.7$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9111334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes30c176.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No56c166.99$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.661855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes35c147.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.149144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed Yes34c147$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.981346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes43c136.13$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c132$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8820242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No62c120$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f4…5e6abacked Yes39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d1…0e74backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ff…136bbacked No57c97.01$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.66650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No56c94$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3223330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes36c90.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.214024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7984…638abacked Yes45c85.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.72540%10 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes41c84.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.841643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.89024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7342…038bbacked Yes33c73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes42c65.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.231118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+85.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes41c64.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2217528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No61c63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.571861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4df7…522dbacked No57c60.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32a4…3956backed Yes46c57.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe31e…c586backed Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d7…31bfbacked Yes39c46.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a2…53edbacked Yes39c44.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa910…12c3backed No58c43.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x552c…e786backed Yes37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.82611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec5…4976backed No62c39.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47b7…c5babacked Yes38c39.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c7…ce35backed No68c38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc39…64b4backed No63c36.05$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3d…c0cabacked No62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe181…c27cbacked Yes31c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1524…dc7abacked No68c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x166a…72f2backed Yes38c32.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed No61c32.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa5…4049backed Yes46c31.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No69c30.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d45…87cfbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ee4…19c4backed Yes38c29.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x619c…8971backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe24c…e9fabacked Yes60c24.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…8942backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd55…c799backed No59c17.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c9…1c1cbacked No59c17.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7d…3cb6backed No60c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac9…e355backed No70c15.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.951050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.