Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43293a5c29afabcf7c199cae244250c869b23b017e45e9d4eec056d50d6d757a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 2c | 9,276$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 9c | 6,209$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.82 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 8c | 4,421$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.65 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 3c | 3,819$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 9c | 2,857$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.96 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 4c | 2,273$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,162$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 9c | 1,730$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.69 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,599$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…6e82backed Yes | 11c | 1,180$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 11c | 1,052$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,007$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,002$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 811.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 413.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 5c | 334.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 11c | 138.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 126.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in May?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.